Figure 3.

Dependence of the outcome of an epidemic on the number of initially infected individuals. The two curves represent the final number of susceptible and recovered individuals, ${\lim }_{t\to \infty }\hspace{0.17em}s(t)$ (red) and ${\lim }_{t\to \infty }\hspace{0.17em}r(t)$ (black) for different numbers of initially present infectious individuals i(0). The parameters were taken from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Congo 14: β ₀ = 0.33, β ₁ = 0.09, τ = 100, t _h = 0.71, k = 0.189, and γ = 0.178 with time measured in days. A small population size, N = 1000, was chosen for the purpose of illustration. The critical value of the stationary number of susceptible is ${\overline{s}}_{\text{cr}}\hspace{0.17em}=\hspace{0.17em}\hspace{0.17em}539.4$.