. 2020 Apr 2:1–3. doi: 10.1017/ice.2020.101

Table 1.

Summary of the Estimated Total Numbers of COVID-19 Deaths in China

Regions	Boltzmann^a		Boltzmann, Mean (95% CI)^a	Richards, Mean (95% CI)^a	Real Data^b
Regions	Mean±SD	R ²	Boltzmann, Mean (95% CI)^a	Richards, Mean (95% CI)^a	Real Data^b
Mainland China	3,200±40	0.999	3,260 (3,187–3,394)	3,342 (3,214–3,527)	3,248
Other provinces	108±1	0.996	110 (109–112)	111 (109–114)	116
Hubei Province	3,100±40	0.999	3,174 (3,095–3,270)	3,245 (3,100–3,423)	3,132
Wuhan City	2,490±40	0.998	2,550 (2,494–2,621)	2613 (2,498–2,767)	2,498
Other cities in Hubei	604±6	0.999	617 (607–632)	627 (603–654)	634

Note. SD, standard deviation; CI, confidence interval.

Boltzmann function–based regression analysis results assuming the reported cumulative number of deaths (from January 21 to February 29) are precise and have uncertainty (SD, 2.5%), respectively (see the Methods section in the Supplementary Information online and Fig. 1E and Supplementary Fig. 1 online). The same uncertainty was set for Richards function–based regression analysis (see the Methods section and Supplementary Fig. 2 online).

Officially reported cumulative numbers of COVID-19 deaths as of March 19, 2020.