Figure 3.

A conceptual framework for inference and forecasting vector‐borne zoonotic disease. (a) Modeling zoonotic/ecological components requires data models (shaded boxes, dashed lines) to relate observations to “true” latent variables and process models, shown in solid lines and unfilled boxes. Relevant data sources include environmental data layers (e.g., temperature, precipitation, habitat measures), and observations of host and vector abundances (counts), as well as observed infection rates. (b) An additional component model can be used to link processes (and uncertainties) in panel (a), to refine inference and forecasting of human disease risk. Data sources include observed human incidence and the data layers that describe bias in human case reporting (e.g., socioeconomic) or alter transmission and infection dynamics (e.g., recreational activities, immunosuppression).