Table 3. Parameter estimates of the SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) epidemic model.
BCI, Bayesian confidence interval; C1_high, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Tianjin, Zhejiang, and Hubei (excluding Wuhan); C1_medium, Anhui, Beijing, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, Jilin, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Tibet; C1_low, Gansu, Hainan, Hebei, Henan, Liaoning, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Chongqing.
| Parameter | Definition | Mean | 95% BCI |
| ρ | Reporting proportion | 0.002 | 0.001 to 0.003 |
| R0 | Basic reproduction number | 3.15 | 3.04 to 3.26 |
| 1/δ | Mean latent period (days) | 4.90 | 4.32 to 5.47 |
| C1_high | Lower effect of control at the first stage | 0.97 | 0.94 to 0.99 |
| C1_medium | Medium effect of control at the first stage | 0.65 | 0.58 to 0.72 |
| C1_low | Higher effect of control at the first stage | 0.31 | 0.24 to 0.38 |
| C2 | Effect of control at the second stage | 0.01 | 0.001 to 0.03 |
| 1/γ | Infectious period before isolation (days) | 5.19 | 4.51 to 5.86 |
| Iw0 | Minimum number of cases when none detected | 1.12 | 0.91 to 1.32 |