Table 2.
Annual percentage change in incidence of 45 infectious diseases, from 2004 to 2013
| Trend | Annual percentage change (95% CI) | p value* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Increase | 5·9% (4·3 to 7·6) | <0·05 |
| Plague† | Decrease | −65·0% (−86·1 to −11·6) | <0·05 |
| Cholera | Decrease | −27·8% (−42·6 to −9·3) | <0·05 |
| Hepatitis A | Decrease | −14·8% (−17·6 to −11·9) | <0·05 |
| Hepatitis B | Stable | 0·8% (−1·1 to 2·9) | 0·4 |
| Hepatitis C | Increase | 19·2% (15·9 to 22·6) | <0·05 |
| Hepatitis E | Increase | 7·0% (4·6 to 9·4) | <0·05 |
| Bacterial dysentery | Decrease | −10·9% (−11·7 to −10·0) | <0·05 |
| Amoebic dysentery | Decrease | −10·8% (−13·6 to −7·8) | <0·05 |
| Typhoid | Decrease | −13·2% (−17·5 to −8·6) | <0·05 |
| Paratyphoid | Decrease | −17·6% (−20·9 to −14·1) | <0·05 |
| HIV infection | Increase | 16·3% (11·5 to 21·2) | <0·05 |
| Gonorrhoea | Decrease | −8·5% (−11·7 to −5·1) | <0·05 |
| Syphilis | Increase | 16·3% (13·8 to 18·8) | <0·05 |
| Poliomyelitis† | Stable | 7·0% (−27·6 to 58·3) | 0·7 |
| Measles | Stable | −14·8% (−27·8 to 0·5) | 0·1 |
| Pertussis | Decrease | −9·6% (−14·1 to −4·8) | <0·05 |
| Diphtheria† | Stable | −2·0% (−14·8 to 12·8) | 0·8 |
| ECM | Decrease | −27·2% (−29·9 to −24·4) | <0·05 |
| Scarlet fever | Stable | 8·8% (−0·5 to 18·9) | 0·1 |
| Haemorrhagic fever | Decrease | −7·5% (−10·9 to −4·0) | <0·05 |
| Rabies | Decrease | −8·2% (−12·3 to −3·8) | <0·05 |
| Leptospirosis | Decrease | −14·3% (−18·9 to −9·4) | <0·05 |
| Brucellosis | Increase | 14·1% (9·0 to 19·4) | <0·05 |
| Anthrax | Decrease | −11·0% (−12·7 to −9·4) | <0·05 |
| Typhus | Decrease | −7·4% (−9·5 to −5·3) | <0·05 |
| Encephalitis | Decrease | −13·9% (−20·3 to −6·9) | <0·05 |
| Kala-azar | Stable | −5·6% (−13·2 to 2·8) | 0·2 |
| Malaria | Decrease | −26·1% (−33·7 to −17·6) | <0·05 |
| Dengue | Stable | 18·4% (−21·2 to 77·8) | 0·4 |
| Neonatal tetanus | Decrease | −18·2% (−19·1 to −17·3) | <0·05 |
| Tuberculosis | Decrease | −2·8% (−5·1 to −0·5) | <0·05 |
| SARS† | Stable | −6·8% (−29·9 to 23·8) | 0·6 |
| Schistosomiasis | Increase | 10·5% (5·9 to 15·4) | <0·05 |
| Filariasis† | Decrease | −68·8% (−86·5 to −27·6) | <0·05 |
| Hydatid disease | Increase | 24·0% (12·0 to 37·2) | <0·05 |
| Leprosy | Increase | 4·7% (0·8 to 8·6) | <0·05 |
| Seasonal influenza | Stable | 11·4% (−3·6 to 28·8) | 0·1 |
| Mumps | Increase | 6·3% (1·6 to 11·2) | <0·05 |
| Rubella | Stable | 3·7% (−12·2 to 22·5) | 0·7 |
| Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis | Stable | 10·6% (−33·3 to 83·4) | 0·7 |
| Other‡ | Increase | 6·6% (3·3 to 10·0) | <0·05 |
| Avian influenza H5N1†§ | Stable | 24·5% (−5·4 to 63·8) | 0·1 |
| HFMD†§ | Stable | 49·7% (−3·8 to 132·7) | 0·1 |
| Influenza A H1N1†§ | Stable | 671·4% (−36·3 to 9243·0) | 0·1 |
| Avian influenza H7N9†§ | Stable | 14·8% (−23·3 to 71·8) | 0·5 |
A normal (Z) distribution was used to assess significance of the annual percentage change, and the parametric method was used to calculate 95% CIs. ECM=epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis. HFMD=hand, foot, and mouth disease. SARS=severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Joinpoint program provides significant values as p<0·05.
When incidence data contained zero, we substitute the zero with 1% of the smallest incidence.
Infectious diarrhoeal diseases other than cholera, bacterial dysentery, amoebic dysentery, typhoid, and paratyphoid.
HFMD, influenza A H1N1, and avian influenza H7N9 were emerging during the period of study, and avian influenza H5N1 was emerging in 2003 according to a previous report.