. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Apr 17.

Published in final edited form as: Ann Appl Stat. 2018 Jul 28;12(2):940–970. doi: 10.1214/18-aoas1175

Table 2:

Continuous ranked probability score for all continents evaluated on projections of 1995–2010, where lower is better. Left column: Projections based on the Bayesian hierarchical model with independent correlation structure (BHM+IFE). Right column: Projections based on the Bayesian hierarchical model with our regularized correlation estimate (BHM+LPoC). Bolded entry in each row indicates the lower value.

	IFE	LPoC
Africa	1.66	1.49
Asia	0.73	0.74
Europe	3.92	3.76
Latin America and the Caribbean	1.62	1.62
Northern America	5.02	4.99
Oceania	8.53	8.49