Table 1.
Published estimates of probability of success for vaccine research and development
| Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Study period start (year) | Study period end (year) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Struck (1996)13 | 57% | 72% | 79% | 1983 | 1994 |
| Wilson (2010)16 | 40% | 33% | 33% | Expert based (phase 1 and 2 together) | Expert based (phase 1 and 2 together) |
| Davis et al (2010)12 | 48% | 74% | 58% | 1995 | 2011 |
| Pronker (2013)6 | 41% | 81% | 31% | 1998 | 2009 |
| Chit et al (2014)15 | N/A | 40% | 74% | 2000 | 2013 |
| BIO (2015)14 | N/A | 70% | 43% | 2006 | 2015 |
| WHO (2016; simple)3 | 41% | 68% | 46% | Data from Di Masi (2003)17 | Data from Di Masi (2003)17 |
| WHO (2016; complex)3 | 41% | 50% | 22% | Data from Di Masi (2003)17 | Data from Di Masi (2003)17 |
| Wong et al (2018; all indications)18 | N/A | 77% | 58% | 2000 | 2015 |
| Wong et al (2018; orphan vaccines)18 | N/A | 90% | 54% | 2000 | 2015 |
| Lowest PoS reported in literature | 41% | 50% | 22% | N/A | N/A |
| Highest PoS reported in literature | 57% | 90% | 79% | N/A | N/A |
N/A=not applicable.