Table 3.
Cost estimates of epidemic infectious disease vaccine R&D, based on self-reported and simulation–optimisation data
|
Average EID vaccine R&D cost (US$) by R&D phase (self-reported)* |
Average EID vaccine R&D cost (US$) by R&D phase (simulation)† |
PoS-adjusted EID vaccine R&D cost (US$; simulation)‡ |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Total | Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Total | Starting from phase 2 | Starting from phase 1 | Starting from preclinical | |
| High cost/high PoS scenario | |||||||||||
| Mean | 26 284 880 | 14 207 067 | 28 002 370 | 68 494 317 | 26 285 345 | 14 207 153 | 28 002 393 | 68 494 335 | 112 005 164 | 200 890 239 | 468 538 014 |
| SD | 28 345 786 | 15 265 428 | 26 226 347 | 67 747 184 | 27 914 228 | 15 032 372 | 25 826 057 | 40 849 928 | 103 304 711 | 142 019 505 | 332 532 567 |
| 5th percentile | 1 710 000 | 1 918 200 | 3 921 100 | 11 654 600 | 1 710 000 | 1 926 000 | 3 973 000 | 19 472 597 | 15 892 000 | 53 595 000 | 98 609 900 |
| 95th percentile | 98 833 489 | 55 361 056 | 93 551 555 | 247 746 100 | 81 190 698 | 49 087 223 | 73 645 079 | 158 508 350 | 294 580 316 | 493 560 396 | 1 060 235 774 |
| Minimum | 1 710 000 | 1 900 000 | 3 800 000 | 9 500 000 | 1 710 000 | 1 900 000 | 3 800 000 | 7 410 000 | 15 200 000 | 22 800 000 | 36 636 000 |
| Maximum | 140 000 000 | 70 000 000 | 140 000 000 | 350 000 000 | 140 000 000 | 70 000 000 | 140 000 000 | 309 895 833 | 560 000 000 | 1 120 000 000 | 2 345 436 114 |
| Low cost/low PoS scenario | |||||||||||
| Mean | 7 866 576 | 6 806 587 | 16 778 360 | 31 451 513 | 7 886 096 | 6 806 116 | 16 778 294 | 31 450 728 | 83 893 986 | 166 665 969 | 319 206 692 |
| SD | 5 925 791 | 5 722 608 | 10 508 552 | 18 975 332 | 5 895 823 | 5 694 263 | 10 458 030 | 13 377 017 | 52 306 472 | 86 375 514 | 150 096 592 |
| 5th percentile | 2 000 000 | 2 000 000 | 4 600 000 | 9 500 000 | 2 000 000 | 2 000 000 | 4 600 000 | 13 749 750 | 23 000 000 | 60 495 500 | 136 327 312 |
| 95th percentile | 19 501 799 | 18 800 657 | 37 045 400 | 66 489 160 | 19 227 000 | 17 872 540 | 36 918 000 | 56 741 358 | 184 590 000 | 333 504 000 | 593 891 509 |
| Minimum | 1 800 000 | 1 027 000 | 4 370 000 | 8 415 000 | 1 800 000 | 1 027 000 | 4 370 000 | 8 300 000 | 21 850 000 | 32 120 000 | 78 000 000 |
| Maximum | 37 441 000 | 30 155 280 | 54 474 105 | 117 057 000 | 37 441 000 | 30 155 280 | 54 474 105 | 95 704 246 | 272 370 526 | 602 459 509 | 1 266 053 842 |
R&D=research and development. PoS=probability of success.
*
Cost of advancing one EID vaccine through to end of phase 2a as self-reported through survey, assuming 100% PoS.
†
Cost of advancing one EID vaccine through to end of phase 2a based on simulation, assuming 100% PoS.
‡
Cost of advancing one EID vaccine through to end of phase 2a based on simulation, accounting for PoS.