Table 3.

Stage 1 model performance (predicting daily 1 km T_a from LST): 10-fold cross-validated performance across all years (2000 – 2016), by month and season.

	T_min			T_mean			T_max
	R²	RMSE	MAE	R²	RMSE	MAE	R²	RMSE	MAE
Jan	0.83	2.16	1.60	0.89	1.54	1.11	0.86	1.87	1.37
Feb	0.84	2.03	1.51	0.91	1.37	0.99	0.89	1.74	1.28
Mar	0.80	1.92	1.46	0.91	1.22	0.91	0.89	1.72	1.28
Apr	0.77	1.82	1.39	0.91	1.17	0.85	0.87	1.75	1.32
May	0.80	1.75	1.33	0.92	1.20	0.86	0.85	1.85	1.39
Jun	0.81	1.74	1.32	0.92	1.23	0.90	0.84	1.94	1.46
Jul	0.79	1.71	1.30	0.92	1.19	0.88	0.84	1.90	1.44
Aug	0.78	1.77	1.35	0.92	1.18	0.88	0.87	1.89	1.43
Sep	0.79	1.83	1.40	0.92	1.12	0.84	0.87	1.70	1.29
Oct	0.83	1.94	1.47	0.91	1.26	0.93	0.88	1.67	1.25
Nov	0.82	2.02	1.52	0.89	1.42	1.03	0.88	1.69	1.25
Dec	0.82	2.17	1.61	0.86	1.69	1.21	0.84	1.94	1.39

Winter	0.83	2.12	1.57	0.89	1.55	1.11	0.86	1.86	1.35
Spring	0.86	1.83	1.40	0.94	1.20	0.87	0.91	1.77	1.33
Summer	0.80	1.74	1.32	0.92	1.20	0.89	0.86	1.91	1.44
Fall	0.87	1.92	1.46	0.95	1.26	0.92	0.93	1.69	1.27