Figure 4.

Effect of sex and migration on transmission flows

(A) Estimated sources of transmission in inland and fishing communities of the RCCS. (B) Estimated amount of cross-community transmissions between inland and fishing communities originating from residents with partners outside their community and from in-migrants. Estimates in both panels were obtained as described in the appendix (p 11), and adjusted for heterogeneity in participation and sequence sampling. In fishing communities, an estimated 33·6% (95% CrI 26·7–40·7) of transmissions originated from resident women, 43·7% (36·7–51·1) from resident men, 10·5% (6·5–15·8) from in-migrating women, and 11·7% (6·5–15·8) from in-migrating men. In inland communities, an estimated 24·0% (95% CrI 16·7–33·5) of transmissions originated from resident women, 54·2% (44·7–63·6) from resident men, 10·1% (5·1–17·3) from in-migrating women, and 10·9% (5·6–18·4) from in-migrating men. Boxes are 50% CrI and whiskers are 95% CrI. RCCS=Rakai Community Cohort Study. 95% CrI=95% credible interval.