Table.
HIV-1 transmission between sites with high and low HIV-1 prevalence in Greater Rakai, Uganda
| Recipient population | Phylogenetically supported transmission flows among RCCS communities* | Estimated contribution to overall HIV-1 transmission among RCCS communities†(posterior mean) | Predicted contribution to overall HIV-1 transmission among inland and lakeside areas of the Rakai region‡(posterior predictive mean) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source overall | ||||
| Fishing communities | Fishing communities | 141 (48·1%) | 44·5% (38·6–50·5) | 5·2% (3·8–7·0) |
| Fishing communities | Inland communities | 7 (2·4%) | 3·5% (1·7–6·3) | 1·7% (0·6–3·5) |
| Inland communities | Fishing communities | 23 (7·8%) | 7·8% (5·1–11·3) | 4·3% (2·3–7·0) |
| Inland communities | Inland communities | 94 (32·1%) | 35·5% (29·8–41·6) | 88·7% (84·5–91·9) |
| External to Rakai area | Fishing communities | 17 (5·8%) | 5·8% (3·5–8·9) | .. |
| External to Rakai area | Inland communities | 6 (2·0%) | 2·5% (1·0–5·0) | .. |
| Unknown origin | Fishing communities | 3 (1·0%) | .. | .. |
| Unknown origin | Inland communities | 2 (0·7%) | .. | .. |
| Source by sex | ||||
| Men, fishing communities | Women, fishing communities | 79 (27%) | 25·3% (20·6–30·5) | 2·9% (2·0–4·2) |
| Men, fishing communities | Women, inland communities | 6 (2·0%) | 3·1% (1·4–5·9) | 1·5% (0·5–3·2) |
| Men, inland communities | Women, fishing communities | 12 (4·1%) | 4·2% (2·2–7·0) | 2·5% (1·1–4·8) |
| Men, inland communities | Women, inland communities | 59 (20·1%) | 22·3% (17·4–27·7) | 55·8% (44·5–66·2) |
| Men, external to Rakai area | Women, fishing communities | 8 (2·7%) | 2·6% (1·2–4·9) | .. |
| Men, external to Rakai area | Women, inland communities | 4 (1·4%) | 1·5% (0·5–3·7) | .. |
| Men, unknown origin | Women, fishing communities | 3 (1·0%) | .. | .. |
| Men, unknown origin | Women, inland communities | 2 (0·7%) | .. | .. |
| Women, fishing communities | Men, fishing communities | 62 (21·2%) | 19·0% (14·8–23·8) | 2·2% (1·5–3·2) |
| Women, fishing communities | Men, inland communities | 1 (0·3%) | 0·2% (0·0–1·2) | 0·1% (0·0–0·9) |
| Women, inland communities | Men, fishing communities | 11 (3·8%) | 3·5% (1·8–6·0) | 1·7% (0·7–3·3) |
| Women, inland communities | Men, inland communities | 35 (11·9%) | 13·1% (9·4–17·6) | 32·8% (22·7–44·0) |
| Women, external to Rakai area | Men, fishing communities | 9 (3·1%) | 3·0% (1·5–5·5) | .. |
| Women, external to Rakai area | Men, inland communities | 2 (0·7%) | 0·8% (0·1–2·5) | .. |
| Women, unknown origin | Men, fishing communities | 0 | .. | .. |
| Women, unknown origin | Men, inland communities | 0 | .. | .. |
Data are n (%) or mean (95% credibility interval). RCCS=Rakai Community Cohort Study.
*
Phylogenetically reconstructed transmission events, unadjusted.
†
Estimates based on phylogenetically reconstructed events, and adjusted for participation and sequencing differences via a Bayesian multi-level model; see appendix p 11.
‡
Predictions based on a fitted Bayesian multi-level model, and extrapolated from eligible individuals who live in RCCS communities to the inland and fishing areas shown in figure 1A; see appendix p 18.