Table 1.
Setting scenarios in 2018 (n=1000)
| Median (range)4 | Examples of observed data* | |
|---|---|---|
| HIV prevalence (age 15–49 years) | 13% (2·3–28·0) | Zimbabwe 2016 13%; Tanzania 2017 5%; Uganda 2017 6%; Lesotho 2017 24%; eSwatini 2017 27%; Malawi 2016 10%; Namibia 2017 12%; Zambia 2016 11%; Cameroon 2017 3·4%; Côte d'Ivoire 2017–18 2·5% |
| HIV incidence (age 15–49 years per 100 person-years) | 0·90 (0·10–2·86) | Malawi 2016 0·37; Zambia 2016 0·66; Zimbabwe 2016 0·45; Lesotho 2017 1·55; Namibia 2016 0·40; Swaziland 2017 1·48, Tanzania 2017 0·27; Cameroon 2017 0·27 |
| Proportion of HIV-positive people diagnosed | 84% (50–97); 76% men, 90% women) | Malawi 2016 77%; Zambia 2016 67%; Zimbabwe 2016 74%; Namibia 2017 86%; Tanzania 2017 52%; Ethiopia 2018 72%; Côte d'Ivoire 2017–18 37%; Cameroon 2017 47% |
| Proportion of diagnosed HIV-positive people on ART | 88% (68–99) | Lesotho 2016–17 92%; South Africa 2017 71%; eSwatini 2016–17 87%; Namibia 2017 96%; Zambia 2016 87%; Tanzania 2016–17 94%; Ethiopia 99%; Malawi 2016 91%; Uganda 2016–17 90%; Cameroon 2017 91%; Zimbabwe 2016 87%; Côte d'Ivoire 2017–18 88%; Cameroon 2017 91% |
| Proportion of all HIV-positive people with viral load <1000 copies per mL | 60% (36–82) | Zambia 2016 60%; Malawi 2016 68%; Zimbabwe 2016 60%; Swaziland 2017 73%; Lesotho 2017 68%; Tanzania 2017 52%; Uganda 2017 60%; Namibia 2017 77%; Ethiopia 2018 70%; Côte d'Ivoire 2017–18 40%; Cameroon 2017 47% |
| Proportion of ART-experienced people who have started second-line ART | 4% (0·6–31·0) | Malawi ∼3% (Malawi Ministry of Health Quarterly Reports) |
| Proportion of people on ART with viral load <1000 copies per mL | 88% (72–97); 85% men, 89% women | Zambia 2016 men 88%, women 90%; Malawi 2016 men 90%, women 92%; Zimbabwe 2016 men 84%, women 88%; Namibia 2017 men 92%, women 90%; Tanzania 2017 men 89%, women 83%; Ethiopia 2018 men 95%, women 87%; Côte d'Ivoire 2017–18 76%; Cameroon 2017 80% |
| Proportion of people on ART with CD4 <500 cells per μL (in 2016) | 44% (30–70) | eSwatini 40% 2016–17; Malawi 52% 2016; Tanzania 2017–18 55%; Zambia 2016 59% |
| Proportions of ART-naive ART initiators with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance | 8% (1–30) | Angola 2012 14%; Botswana 2016 8%; South Africa 2017 14%; Zimbabwe 2015 10%; Namibia 9%; Uganda 2016 16%; Cameroon 8% (HIV drug resistance report 20177) |
| Mother-to-child transmission rate | 9% (3–25) | (including breastfeeding period) Botswana 5%, South Africa 5%; Namibia 6%; Uganda 8%; Zimbabwe 7%; Malawi 9%; Tanzania 12%; Ethiopia 21%; Côte d'Ivoire 16%; Cameroon 15% (UNAIDS 20198) |
| Proportion of women aged 15–65 years giving birth per year | 12% (5–19) | South Africa 6%; Botswana 7%; Namibia 10%; Malawi 15%; Zimbabwe 12%; Uganda 18%; Tanzania 16%; Ethiopia 12%; Côte d'Ivoire 15%, Cameroon 14% (2019 Revision of World Population Prospects9) |
ART=antiretroviral therapy.
*
All data from Population Health Impact Assessment surveys, Human Sciences Research Council South Africa National HIV survey,10 or Botswana Combination Prevention Project (2013–15),11 unless otherwise stated.