Table I.

Questions on Subjective Probability Judgments for Contaminated Dog Food and Lead‐Painted Toys

	Suppose 10,000 dogs ate the same contaminated dog food. What do you expect to happen among these dogs within the next month?
Contaminated dog food
Version A	_________ No. of dogs dying from the dog food
Version B	_________ No. of dogs dying
Version C	_________ No. of dogs dying from the dog food
	_________ No. of dogs dying from other causes
	Suppose 10,000 under‐six‐year‐old children played with the same lead‐painted toys. What do you expect to happen among these children within the next couple of months?
Lead‐painted children's toys
Version A	_________ No. of children having higher blood lead levels from lead‐painted toys
Version B	_________ No. of children having higher blood lead levels
Version C	_________ No. of children having higher blood lead levels from lead‐painted toys
	_________ No. of children having higher blood lead levels from other causes