Fig. 3.

The results of the Bayesian calibration for the synthetic case. Above the diagonal: projection of the TMCMC samples of the posterior distribution $\mathbb{P}(\theta |\mathcal{D},M)$ in 2D space of the indicated parameters. The colors indicate likelihood values of the samples. The number in each plot shows the Pearson correlation coefficient between the parameter pairs. The colored triangles mark the four selected parameters used in Figure 4. Diagonal: marginal distributions obtained with Gaussian kernel estimates. Boxplot whiskers demarcate the 95% percentiles. Below the diagonal: projected densities in 2D parameter space constructed by 2D Gaussian kernel estimates. The black dots mark the values used to generate the synthetic data.