Table 3.

Effects of tobacco taxation over 50 years

Income level	Deaths averted (000s)	Years of life gained (000s)	Deaths averted (per 100 000)	Years of life gained (per 100 000)	Change in expenditure (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)	Change in tax revenue (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)
20% price increase
Low	722	12 007	110	1836	9	27
	(440 to 1004)	(7224 to 16 790)	(67 to 153)	(1105 to 2568)	(3 to 15)	(23 to 29)
Lower middle	3686	64 881	123	2170	147	277
	(2235 to 5137)	(38 922 to 90 840)	(75 to 172)	(1302 to 3038)	(70 to 205)	(213 to 306)
Upper middle	3535	69 373	138	2711	427	857
	(2135 to 4934)	(41 610 to 97 135)	(83 to 193)	(1626 to 3796)	(189 to 658)	(690 to 1013)
High	739	14 474	63	1226	556	826
	(438 to 1040)	(8556 to 20 391)	(37 to 88)	(725 to 1728)	(374 to 727)	(688 to 949)
Global	8682	160 734	118	2177	1139	1987
	(5249 to 12 115)	(96 312 to 225 157)	(71 to 164)	(1305 to 3050)	(636 to 1606)	(1613 to 2297)
50% price increase
Low	1805	30 018	276	4591	7	49
	(1101 to 2509)	(18 061 to 41 976)	(168 to 384)	(2762 to 6420)	(−10 to 24)	(36 to 58)
Lower middle	9215	162 202	308	5425	188	497
	(5587 to 12 844)	(97 304 to 227 100)	(187 to 430)	(3254 to 7595)	(−11 to 364)	(325 to 606)
Upper middle	8836	173 432	345	6778	481	1506
	(5339 to 12 334)	(104 025 to 242 839)	(209 to 482)	(4065 to 9490)	(−172 to 1127)	(1009 to 1982)
High	1848	36 184	157	3066	924	1573
	(1096 to 2600)	(21 390 to 50 978)	(93 to 220)	(1812 to 4319)	(414 to 1417)	(1164 to 1953)
Global	21 705	401 836	294	5443	1601	3625
	(13 123 to 30 287)	(240 779 to 562 892)	(178 to 410)	(3261 to 7624)	(220 to 2933)	(2534 to 4599)

Uncertainty interval (95%) in parentheses. Discount rate of 3% is assumed for economic outcomes.