Table 4.

Effects of alcohol taxation over 50 years

Income level	Deaths averted (000s)	Years of life gained (000s)	Deaths averted (per 100 000)	Years of life gained (per 100 000)	Change in expenditure (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)	Change in tax revenue (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)
20% price increase
Low	591	11 665	90	1784	37	98
	(435 to 747)	(8355 to 14 975)	(64 to 110)	(1225 to 2196)	(15 to 59)	(87 to 109)
Lower middle	4179	98 999	140	3311	548	1767
	(3095 to 5262)	(71 194 to 126 804)	(99 to 169)	(2283 to 4066)	(223 to 872)	(1654 to 1880)
Upper middle	2460	70 097	96	2739	1013	3291
	(1780 to 3141)	(49 382 to 90 812)	(67 to 118)	(1850 to 3403)	(404 to 1623)	(3079 to 3503)
High	1536	46 661	130	3954	1360	4272
	(1085 to 1987)	(32 295 to 61 026)	(88 to 161)	(2624 to 4958)	(556 to 2163)	(3983 to 4561)
Global	8766	227 421	119	3080	2958	9428
	(6395 to 11 136)	(161 226 to 293 617)	(83 to 145)	(2094 to 3813)	(1198 to 4718)	(8803 to 10 053)
50% price increase
Low	1431	28 139	210	4126	20	174
	(1059 to 1803)	(20 300 to 35 978)	(155 to 264)	(2977 to 5276)	(−48 to 87)	(133 to 214)
Lower middle	10 101	237 981	324	7631	293	3353
	(7527 to 12 674)	(172 499 to 303 463)	(241 to 406)	(5532 to 9731)	(−710 to 1297)	(2883 to 3823)
Upper middle	5957	169 077	223	6335	520	6229
	(4337 to 7577)	(120 008 to 218 147)	(163 to 284)	(4497 to 8174)	(−1363 to 2404)	(5347 to 7110)
High	3687	111 548	300	9062	716	8022
	(2625 to 4749)	(77 949 to 145 146)	(213 to 386)	(6333 to 11 792)	(−1780 to 3212)	(6825 to 9220)
Global	21 176	546 745	275	7101	1549	17 778
	(15 548 to 26 804)	(390 755 to 702 735)	(202 to 348)	(5075 to 9126)	(−3902 to 6999)	(15 188 to 20 367)

Uniform price increase across all beverages, no substitution assumed. Uncertainty interval (95%) in parentheses. Discount rate of 3% is assumed for economic outcomes.