Figure 1.

Model depiction with transitions and feedback. Model structure: probabilities are applied to progression through the stages at both the person- and tooth-level. At the person level, “decay probability” represents the probability of a child developing decay in at least 1 tooth. At each discrete time-step representing 1 mo, the probability of at least 1 tooth becoming decayed is nonzero for every child in the model. Subsequently, “care probability” represents the probability that the child receives restorative care following the development of decay. If the child receives fluoride during the model timeline, then the person-level decay probability will be reduced by the value of the “fluoride effect” parameter. The value of this parameter wanes over time and decay probability returns to its original value 6 mo after each fluoride treatment. On the tooth-level, “decay probability” represents the probability of decay in additional teeth following the person-level development of decay. On the tooth level, decayed teeth can progress to missing due to decay.