Table 1.

Estimates from Zickfeld et al. (2009) of the probability of exceeding 2–4 ^∘C warming above pre-industrial as a function of cumulative carbon emissions since pre-industrial (gigatonnes of carbon)

Cumulative carbon	2 ∘C		3 ∘C		4 ∘C
emissions (GtC)	min.	max.	min.	max.	min.	max.
500	0.03	0.5	0	0.34	0	0.27
1000	0.34	0.8	0.03	0.51	0	0.4
1500	0.63	0.98	0.23	0.73	0.05	0.53
2000	0.81	1	0.48	0.89	0.18	0.69
3000	0.92	1	0.75	1	0.53	0.91
4000	0.95	1	0.87	1	0.71	0.99