Table 8.
Individualism and transition from autocracy to autocracy (Tobit regressions)
| Dependent variable: probability of transition from autocracy to autocracy | OLS | IV | OLS | IV | OLS | IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Individualism | − 5.941*** | − 7.978*** | − 3.830*** | − 5.738*** | − 3.807*** | − 3.837** |
| (1.591) | (2.276) | (1.172) | (1.876) | (1.056) | (1.618) | |
| Log income per worker | − 45.862 | − 21.929 | 2.704 | 3.147 | ||
| (27.899) | (32.396) | (35.761) | (37.574) | |||
| Protection against expropriation risk | 5.561 | 4.284 | − 0.706 | − 0.738 | ||
| (5.338) | (5.644) | (5.398) | (5.527) | |||
| Natural resource rent | 6.118*** | 5.101*** | 4.270*** | 4.258*** | ||
| (1.870) | (1.750) | (1.597) | (1.531) | |||
| Education index | − 121.069 | − 120.917 | ||||
| (126.738) | (126.984) | |||||
| Ethnic fractionalization | − 66.145 | − 66.286 | ||||
| (84.370) | (86.239) | |||||
| Cultural fractionalization | 70.798 | 70.052 | ||||
| (118.219) | (123.922) | |||||
| Ethno-linguistic fractionalization | 95.526 | 96.131 | ||||
| (92.415) | (95.123) | |||||
| Share of Muslim | 123.272** | 123.113** | ||||
| (58.435) | (58.653) | |||||
| Observations | 84 | 84 | 83 | 83 | 72 | 72 |
The dependent variable is the probability of transition from autocracy to autocracy for a country after an autocracy breakdown, based on the dataset in Geddes et al. (2014). Individualism is Hofstede’s index of individualism. Log income per worker: log income (at purchasing power parity) per worker in 2000 from the Penn World Tables. Protection against expropriation risk (ICRG, average 1985–2009). Ethnical, cultural and ethno-linguistical fractionalization are from Fearon (2003). Education: World Bank Human Development Report Education Index (average 1980–2005). Natural resource rent is the sum of oil rents, natural gas rents, coal rents (hard and soft), mineral rents, and forest rents. This variable is measured in percent of GDP (average over 1980–2010) and taken from the World Development Indicators. Share of Muslim population is from Barro and McCleary (2003) and refers to 1970. Controls low risk of: cross-border conflict, civil disorder, ethnic tensions and war (ICRG, average 1985–2009) are included but not reported. Instrumental variables for individualism: historical pathogens is the Historical Pathogen prevalence index from Murray and Schaller (2010); blood distance is the Euclidian distance of frequency of blood types A and B in a given country relative to their frequency in the USA. Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1