Table 2.

The Parameter estimates of the tentative models with their AIC and SC

Model	Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	prob	AIC	SC
SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)12	C	−0.81	0.16	−4.92	< 0.01
	AR(1)	−0.16	0.22	−0.73	0.47	3.00	3.10
	MA(1)	0.51	0.20	2.52	0.01
SARIMA(1,0,(2))(0,1,0)12	C	−0.84	0.21	−4.00	< 0.01
	AR(1)	0.23	0.12	1.93	0.06	3.03	3.12
	MA(2)	0.27	0.12	2.23	0.03
SARIMA((2),0,1)(0,1,0)12	C	−0.78	0.20	−3.96	< 0.01
	AR(2)	0.14	0.12	1.21	0.23	2.94	3.04
	MA(1)	0.37	0.12	3.15	< 0.01
SARIMA((2),0,(2))(0,1,0)12	C	−0.77	0.15	−5.22	< 0.01
	AR(2)	−0.59	0.10	−6.07	< 0.01	2.87	2.98
	MA(2)	0.96	0.02	54.39	< 0.01
SARIMA(2,0,(2))(0,1,0)12	C	−0.78	0.16	−4.83	< 0.01
	AR(1)	0.17	0.10	1.77	0.08	2.87	3.00
	AR(2)	−0.61	0.10	−6.26	< 0.01
	MA(2)	0.97	0.02	46.44	< 0.01
SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,0)12	C	−0.71	0.22	−3.21	0.00
	AR(1)	0.64	0.25	2.57	0.01	2.91	3.03
	AR(2)	−0.02	0.14	−0.17	0.86
	MA(1)	−0.31	0.27	−1.15	0.26
SARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,0)12	C	−0.81	0.18	−4.46	< 0.01
	AR(1)	−0.16	0.29	−0.54	0.59	3.01	3.13
	MA(1)	0.50	0.30	1.65	0.10
	MA(2)	0.18	0.14	1.29	0.20
SARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,0)12	C	−0.72	0.22	−3.31	< 0.01
	AR(1)	0.65	0.26	2.52	0.01
	AR(2)	−0.09	0.21	− 0.44	0.66	2.93	3.09
	MA(1)	−0.33	0.28	−1.17	0.25
	MA(2)	0.12	0.23	0.52	0.60