Table 3.
Descriptive statistics of the length of surveillance in months for two study designs over a range of true risks with misclassification
| True risks | Signala (%) | Mean (months) | Median (months) | 80th (months) | 95th (months) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRDb | IRR | Poi | Bin | Poi | Bin | Poi | Bin | Poi | Bin | Poi | Bin |
| Reference casec: sensitivity = 1.0; PPV0 = 1.0; database size, 564 000 persons | |||||||||||
| 0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 16.8 | 73.3 | 17 | 74 | 17 | 87 | 17 | 102 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 60.8 | 17 | 63 | 17 | 75 | 17 | 88 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 29.3 | 31.0 | 15.8 | 50.1 | 17 | 53 | 17 | 65 | 17 | 76 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 58.6 | 60.9 | 14.0 | 34.6 | 15 | 36 | 17 | 49 | 17 | 59 |
| 8 | 5.0 | 90.9 | 89.9 | 10.9 | 20.3 | 10 | 18 | 14 | 29 | 17 | 39 |
| 18 | 10.0 | 99.9 | 99.5 | 7.2 | 11.8 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 19 |
| Algorithm 1d: sensitivity = 0.84; PPV0 = 0.54; database size, 564 000 persons | |||||||||||
| 0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 28.3 | 89.1 | 29 | 90 | 29 | 102 | 29 | 114 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 12.3 | 11.4 | 27.4 | 79.8 | 29 | 82 | 29 | 94 | 29 | 105 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 23.4 | 23.9 | 26.0 | 69.9 | 29 | 74 | 29 | 86 | 29 | 96 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 51.5 | 54.9 | 22.0 | 52.2 | 28 | 57 | 29 | 71 | 29 | 82 |
| 8 | 5.0 | 90.0 | 91.0 | 14.7 | 29.6 | 12 | 26 | 23 | 44 | 29 | 58 |
| 18 | 10.0 | >99.9 | 99.9 | 7.8 | 14.8 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 14 | 25 |
| Algorithm 2e: sensitivity = 0.99; PPV0 = 0.53; database size, 0.40 × 564 000 persons | |||||||||||
| 0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 57.4 | 178.8 | 59 | 180 | 59 | 205 | 59 | 231 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 12.2 | 11.2 | 55.3 | 158.7 | 59 | 164 | 59 | 188 | 59 | 211 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 23.3 | 23.4 | 52.1 | 138.2 | 59 | 148 | 59 | 171 | 59 | 193 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 51.3 | 53.8 | 43.7 | 101.1 | 58 | 112 | 59 | 142 | 59 | 165 |
| 8 | 5.0 | 90.0 | 90.4 | 27.6 | 54.6 | 22 | 47 | 44 | 85 | 59 | 114 |
| 18 | 10.0 | >99.9 | 99.9 | 13.1 | 23.5 | 12 | 21 | 16 | 31 | 26 | 46 |
| Algorithm 3f: sensitivity = 0.59; PPV0 = 0.79; database size, 0.40 × 564 000 persons | |||||||||||
| 0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 70.5 | 280.5 | 72 | 285 | 72 | 337 | 72 | 388 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 13.8 | 14.7 | 67.9 | 237.6 | 72 | 248 | 72 | 296 | 72 | 343 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 26.4 | 28.5 | 64.1 | 195.0 | 72 | 211 | 72 | 258 | 72 | 302 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 55.0 | 58.4 | 53.9 | 133.3 | 60 | 144 | 72 | 199 | 72 | 240 |
| 8 | 5.0 | 90.0 | 90.1 | 36.6 | 68.6 | 32 | 59 | 54 | 110 | 72 | 155 |
| 18 | 10.0 | >99.9 | 99.7 | 19.7 | 28.5 | 18 | 24 | 26 | 41 | 35 | 62 |
Bin, Binomial MaxSPRT Model; IRD, incidence rate difference; IRR, incidence rate ratio; Poi, Poisson MaxSPRT Model; PPV0, positive predictive value in the comparison population.
Signal (%) is the percent of time the null hypothesis is rejected.
Incidence rate difference is given in events per 100 000 person-years.
Poisson MaxSPRT upper limit = 1.371, Poisson MaxSPRT critical value = 1.663; binomial MaxSPRT upper limit = 20, binomial MaxSPRT critical value = 3.296.
Poisson MaxSPRT upper limit = 4.106, Poisson MaxSPRT critical value = 2.507; binomial MaxSPRT upper limit = 39, binomial MaxSPRT critical value = 3.296.
Poisson MaxSPRT upper limit = 4.226, Poisson MaxSPRT critical value = 2.522; binomial MaxSPRT upper limit = 39, binomial MaxSPRT critical value = 3.296.
Poisson MaxSPRT upper limit = 2.076, Poisson MaxSPRT critical value = 2.032; binomial MaxSPRT upper limit = 25, binomial MaxSPRT critical value = 3.296.