Table 4.
Performance of the Model Fit to the Test Data Set using Youden’s J Statistic as the Decision Threshold.
| Performance measure | Performance Statistic (95% Bootstrap CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Training set years | 2013–2015 | |
| Sample size | 5,194 | |
| Any complication rate (%) | 710 (13.7) | |
| Test set year | 2016 | |
| Sample size | 1,646 | |
| Any complication rate (%) | 121 (12.9) | |
| Threshold | 0.11 | |
| Specificitya | 88 (87, 90) | |
| Sensitivitya | 83 (79, 88) | |
| Accuracya | 88 (86, 89) | |
| NPVa | 97 (97, 98) | |
| PPVa | 52 (48, 56) | |
| False negatives | 35 (25, 45) | |
| False positives | 165 (142, 190) | |
| AUCa | 93 |
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; NPV, negative predictive value; PV, positive predictive value.
a
Values multiplied by 100.