Table 2.

Regression coefficients and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax cases reported by month and sub-districts, Bhutan, 2006–2014.

	Plasmodium falciparum RR (95% CrI)	Plasmodium vivax RR (95% CrI)
Model I‡
Intercept*	−1.36 (−2.01, −0.78)	−1.07 (−1.74, −0.51)
Sex (reference group- male)	1.00 (0.81, 1.25)	0.98 (0.83, 1.17)
Age (reference group- <5 yrs)	1.00 (0.91, 1.10)	1.05 (0.96, 1.15)
Rainfall (mm)†	1.006 (1.003, 1.009)	1.006 (1.003, 1.006)
Temp Max (degree Celsius)	0.98 (0.96, 1.004)	0.99 (0.97, 1.01)
Probability of extra zero	0.26 (0.21, 0.30)	0.28 (0.23, 0.32)
Heterogeneity*
Unstructured	0.16 (0.10, 0.24)	0.20 (0.13, 0.29)
Structured (spatial)
DIC	7353	8573.17
Model II
Intercept*	−1.47 (−2.11, −0.90)	−1.11 (0.01, −0.68)
Sex (reference group- male)	1.03 (0.61, 1.88)	1.00 (1.01, 1.48)
Age (reference group- <5 yrs)	1.01 (0.85, 1.19)	1.05 (1.00, 1.23)
Rainfall (mm)†	1.01 (1.00, 1.01)	1.00 (1.00, 1.03)
Temp Max (degree Celsius)	0.98 (0.95, 1.02)	0.99 (1.00, 1.02)
Probability of extra zero	0.26 (0.18, 0.33)	0.28 (0.23, 0.32)
Heterogeneity*
Unstructured
Structured (spatial)	0.05 (0.03, 0.07)	0.05 (0.00 0.08)
DIC	7415	8622.61
Model III
Intercept*	−1.44 (−2.35, −0.73)	−0.99 (−1.57, −0.45)
Sex (reference group- male)	1.00 (0.79, 1.27)	0.98 (0.82, 1.17)
Age (reference group- <5 yrs)	1.00 (0.91, 1.11)	1.05 (0.96, 1.15)
Rainfall (mm)†	1.01 (1.00, 1.01)	1.00 (1.00, 1.01)
Temp Max (degree Celsius)	0.98 (0.96, 1.00)	0.99 (0.97, 1.01)
Probability of extra zero	0.26 (0.18, 0.33)	0.28 (0.23, 0.32)
Heterogeneity*
Unstructured	0.17 (0.10, 0.36)	0.20 (0.13, 0.30)
Structured (spatial)	813.90 (0.10, 3,141.00)	576.70 (41.29, 2,105.00)
DIC	7356	8573.46

CrI- credible interval; DIC- deviation information criteria; RR- relative risk.

^‡Best fit model ^*co-efficient; ^†One month lagged for P. falciparum.