Table 3.
Multilevel mixed effects linear regression models predicting daily COVID-19 mortality in 25 European countries (fixed part).
| Variables | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | ||||||||||||||||
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b | 95% CI | P value | b | 95% CI | P value | b | 95% CI | P value | ||||||||||
| Constant | 6.81 | 4.05-9.56 | <.001 | 5.75 | 3.15-8.34 | <.001 | 5.29 | 2.67-7.90 | <.001 | ||||||||||
| Within-country effects | |||||||||||||||||||
|
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Time | 0.16 | 0.11-0.22 | <.001 | 0.16 | 0.10-0.22 | <.001 | 0.16 | 0.10-0.22 | <.001 | |||||||||
| Between-country effects | |||||||||||||||||||
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Perceived sociability | 7.04 | 0.25-13.83 | .04 | N/Aa | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||
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National restrictions after first death | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.55 | 1.08-4.02 | .001 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||
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Institutional trust | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | –0.42 | –0.65 to –0.19 | <.001 | |||||||||
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Population | 0.02 | –0.03 to 0.08 | .42 | 0.02 | –0.03 to 0.07 | .39 | –0.02 | –0.08 to 0.05 | .60 | |||||||||
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Population density | 0.00 | 0.00-0.01 | .04 | 0.00 | 0.00-0.01 | .20 | 0.00 | 0.00-0.01 | .048 | |||||||||
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Old-age dependency ratio | –0.04 | –0.29 to 0.20 | .73 | 0.03 | –0.20 to 0.26 | .80 | –0.04 | –0.26 to 0.18 | .73 | |||||||||
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Country household size average | 0.96 | –1.00 to 2.92 | .34 | 0.98 | –0.94 to 2.91 | .32 | –0.55 | –2.45 to 1.35 | .57 | |||||||||
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Life expectancy at birth | 0.27 | –0.01 to 0.54 | .06 | 0.37 | 0.14-0.59 | .002 | 0.29 | 0.05-0.52 | .02 | |||||||||
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Health care expenditure per inhabitant | –0.60 | –1.28 to 0.07 | .08 | –0.25 | –0.59 to 0.08 | .14 | 0.46 | 0.03-0.88 | .03 | |||||||||
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High tourist arrival | 0.65 | –0.62 to 1.93 | .32 | 1.11 | –0.10 to 2.33 | .07 | 2.12 | 0.40-3.83 | .02 | |||||||||
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The length of follow-up period | 0.13 | 0.06-0.20 | .001 | 0.12 | 0.05-0.19 | .001 | 0.19 | 0.12-0.26 | <.001 | |||||||||
aN/A: not applicable.