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. 2018 Feb 27;81:16–30. doi: 10.1016/j.jbi.2018.02.014

Table 2.

Fraction of 95% projection intervals that cover the eventual value for full models for all diseases at all prediction windows.

Japan
Singapore
Taiwan Thailand
Prediction Window Chickenpox HFMD Dengue HFMD Dengue Chickenpox Dengue Malaria
1 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
2 100% 98% 100% 100% 98%
3 100% 96% 99% 98% 97%
4 100% 96% 98% 96% 96% 100% 100% 100%
5 100% 95% 98% 94% 94%
6 100% 94% 97% 87% 92%
7 100% 92% 95% 83% 91%
8 100% 91% 93% 77% 89% 100% 98% 96%
9 100% 91% 91% 74% 86%
10 100% 90% 90% 73% 85%
11 100% 90% 88% 71% 82%
12 100% 89% 86% 69% 80% 100% 98% 96%
13 100% 89% 83% 64% 80%
14 100% 89% 84% 63% 81%
15 100% 90% 83% 63% 81%
16 100% 90% 83% 63% 81% 100% 94% 100%
17 100% 91% 89% 65% 80%
18 100% 90% 91% 64% 80%
19 100% 90% 92% 64% 80%
20 99% 90% 91% 64% 80% 100% 93% 98%
21 99% 90% 90% 65% 81%
22 99% 90% 91% 63% 82%
23 99% 90% 90% 63% 82%
24 99% 90% 89% 63% 81% 100% 94% 98%
25 100% 90% 86% 63% 82%
26 100% 90% 82% 63% 81%