Table 4.

Percentage of our prediction model correctly classify a predicted future week/month being an epidemic week/month. An epidemic week/month is defined as when the number of cases is more than the 75th percentile of the level in the past year. Percentage above 75% is shown bold. Models that had significantly higher accuracy than 75% are marked with an asterisk.

	Japan		Singapore		Taiwan	Thailand
Prediction Window	Chickenpox	HFMD	Dengue	HFMD	Dengue	Chickenpox	Dengue	Malaria
1	89%*	97%*	90%*	99%*	93%*
2	87%*	97%*	88%*	96%*	93%*
3	86%*	97%*	83%*	95%*	91%*
4	78%	95%*	81%*	94%*	89%*	98%*	98%*	100%*
5	76%	93%*	79%	91%*	89%*
6	75%	91%*	80%	90%*	86%*
7	72%	89%*	75%	87%*	83%*
8	71%	88%*	73%	85%*	80%*	94%*	94%*	100%*
9	68%	88%*	69%	81%*	80%*
10	69%	88%*	71%	80%*	77%
11	70%	88%*	70%	79%	75%
12	69%	88%*	71%	80%*	75%	93%*	96%*	100%*
13	71%	87%*	70%	81%*	74%
14	70%	87%*	68%	81%*	76%
15	69%	87%*	69%	81%*	77%
16	71%	86%*	71%	80%*	76%	91%*	93%*	100%*
17	73%	86%*	70%	80%*	77%
18	72%	88%*	73%	80%*	77%
19	73%	89%*	71%	80%*	76%
20	71%	90%*	71%	80%*	77%	89%*	93%*	100%*
21	71%	90%*	73%	79%	78%
22	70%	89%*	73%	79%	77%
23	68%	89%*	72%	80%*	77%
24	70%	89%*	71%	80%*	77%	87%*	91%*	100%*
25	71%	89%*	71%	78%	77%
26	73%	89%*	71%	81%*	76%