Table 2.
Aviation RFs |
Anthropogenic RFs |
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RF (mW m−2) | CO2 | O3 | CH4 | Total NOx (O3 + CH4) | H2O | Contrails | SO4 | Soot | AIC | Total CO2 | Total (excl. AIC) |
2005 best estimatea | 28.0 | 26.3 | −12.5 | 12.6 | 2.8 | 11.8 | −4.8 | 3.4 | 33 | 1660 | 1600 |
2005 low | 15.2 | 8.4 | −2.1 | 3.8 | 0.39 | 5.4 | −0.79 | 0.56 | 12.5 | 1490 | 600 |
2005 high | 40.8 | 82.3 | −76.2 | 15.7 | 20.3 | 25.6 | 29.3 | 20.7 | 86.7 | 1830 | 2400 |
Distribution type | Normal | Lognorm. | Lognorm. | Discrete pdf | Lognorm. | Lognorm. | Lognorm. | Lognorm. | Lognorm. | Normal | Discrete PDF |
Notes: Estimates of aviation uncertainty based on IPCC (1999) except for linear contrails and AIC which employ uncertainty estimates from IPCC AR4 WGI (2007). Note that IPCC (1999) used 67% uncertainty ranges compared to the 90% likelihood ranges used here. Non-aviation RFs and their uncertainty are taken directly from Forster et al. (2007a).
Values from Table 1.