Table 2. List of parameters used in the model.
# | Name | Description | Value | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | V | Set of villages | |V| = 1000 | |
2 | N | Set of individuals across all villages | |N| = 314,795 | - |
3 | ml | Proportion of males in the population | 0.48 | (National Institute of Statistics, 2008) |
4 | maxage | Maximum age | 80 years | - |
5 | beta | Biting rate | variable* | - |
6 | previ | Initial proportion of infectious people | variable* | - |
7 | resit | Initial proportion of artemisinin resistant infections | variable* | - |
8 | netuse | Proportion of individuals that own an insecticide treated bed net | 0.5 | - |
9 | itneffect | proportional decrease of individual susceptibility/infectiousness related to ITN usage | 0.2 | - |
10 | ovstay | Mean number of nights spent somewhere when undertaking short-term population movement | 3 | - |
11 | crit | Critical distance below which overnight stays somewhere other than your home are made very unlikely | 4 km | - |
12 | timecomp | Mean time to complete ACT routine treatment | 4 days | Best guess |
13 | fullcourse | Proportion that receives treatment full course | 0.8 | (Yeung et al., 2008) |
14 | covab | Proportion of symptomatic cases that receive antimalarials | 0.6 | (Yeung et al., 2008) |
15 | nomp | Relative probability of receiving treatment in a non-malaria post village | 0.1 | Best guess |
16 | asymtreat | Relative probability of receiving treatment without clinical symptom | 10−4 | - |
17 | tauab | Daily probability of receiving ACT in a village under MDA | 1/1.5 | - |
18 | gamma | Mean liver stage duration | 5 days | (Collins and Jeffery, 1999; Eyles and Young, 1951) |
19 | sigma | Mean time to infectiousness after liver emergence | 15 days | (Jeffery and Eyles, 1955) |
20 | mellow | Mean duration of symptoms | 3 days | (Church et al., 1997) |
21 | xa0 | Daily probability of going below the minimum effective artemisinin concentration | 1/7 | (Karbwang et al., 1998) |
22 | xai | Daily probability losing the DHA effect as part of ACT | 1/3 | (Rijken et al., 2011; Tarning et al., 2008) |
23 | xab | Daily probability of going below the minimum effective piperaquine concentration | 1/30 | (Rijken et al., 2011; Tarning et al., 2008) |
24 | xpr | Daily probability of going below the minimum effective primaquine concentration | 1/2 | (Burgess and Bray, 1961) |
25 | delta | Mean duration of a malaria untreated infection | 160 days | (Eyles and Young, 1951; Babiker et al., 1998; Franks et al., 2001) |
26 | imm_min | Minimum clinical immunity period | 40 days | Best guess |
27 | alpha | Average permanence in each immunity level | 60 days | - |
28 | phic | Relative infectiousness of symptomatic infections compared to sub-patent ones | 1 | - |
29 | mdi | Mosquito daily probability of dying while infectious | 1/7 | (Dawes et al., 2009) |
30 | mdn | Mosquito daily probability of dying while infected but not yet infectious | 1/20 | (Dawes et al., 2009) |
31 | mgamma | Mean extrinsic incubation period | 14 days | (Smith et al., 2014) |
32 | amp | Amplitude of mosquito density seasonal variation | 0.6 | Best guess |
33 | process | Days needed to administer a full ACT course in one village | 4 days | Optimistic guess |
34 | rounds | Number of drug rounds in an MDA campaign | 3 | Standard practice |
35 | btrounds | Number of days between drug rounds in an MDA campaign | 32 | Standard practice |
36 | vcefficacy | Vector control efficacy | variable* | - |
37 | Daily probability of clearing blood stage drug sensitive parasites with circulating dha | 1/5 | (Adjuik et al., 2004; Pukrittayakamee et al., 2004) | |
38 | Daily probability of clearing blood stage artemisinin resistant parasites with dha | 0.27*
(0.05) |
(Dondorp et al., 2009) | |
39 | Daily probability of clearing infectious stage drug sensitive parasites with circulating dha | 1/3 | (Adjuik et al., 2004; Pukrittayakamee et al., 2004) | |
40 | Daily probability of clearing infectious stage artemisinin resistant parasites with dha | 0.27*
(0.09) |
(Dondorp et al., 2009) | |
41 | Daily probability of clearing blood stage drug sensitive parasites with circulating dha- piperaquine | 1/3 | (Adjuik et al., 2004; Pukrittayakamee et al., 2004) | |
42 | Daily probability of clearing blood stage artemisinin resistant parasites with dha- piperaquine | 0.27* + (1.0–0.27)*
(0.33) |
(Dondorp et al., 2009) | |
43 | Daily probability of clearing infectious stage drug sensitive parasites with circulating dha- piperaquine |
1/3 | (Bustos et al., 2013) | |
44 | Daily probability of clearing infectious stage artemisinin resistant parasites with dha- piperaquine | 0.27* + (1.0–0.27)*
(0.126) |
- | |
45 | Daily probability of clearing blood stage drug sensitive parasites with circulating piperaquine | 1/3 | (Chen et al., 1982) | |
46 | Daily probability of clearing blood stage artemisinin resistant parasites with piperaquine | 1/3 | (Chen et al., 1982) | |
47 | Daily probability of clearing infectious stage drug sensitive parasites with circulating piperaquine | 1/20 | (Myint et al., 2007) | |
48 | Daily probability of clearing infectious stage artemisinin resistant parasites with piperaquine | 1/20 | (Myint et al., 2007) | |
49 | Daily probability of clearing infectious stage drug sensitive parasites with primaquine | 1/1.5 | (Burgess and Bray, 1961; Smithuis et al., 2010) | |
50 | Daily probability of clearing infectious stage artemisinin resistant parasites with primaquine |
1/1.5 | - | |
51 | k | Steepness of susceptibility increase with age | 0.14 | (Aguas et al., 2008) |
52 | r | Amplitude of susceptibility increase with age | 0.99 | (Aguas et al., 2008) |
*the values are varied in different simulation settings. Their values are given in the description of each set of experiments and the set of possible values is given in Table 1.