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. 2020 Apr 29;11:2096. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6

Table 1.

Main assumptions on climate policy implementation per scenario.

Scenario Policy assumptions
Until 2030 After 2030
No new policies None None
National policies Implementation of current domestic policies Equivalent effort to policy implementation before 2030
NDCs Full implementation of conditional national NDCs Equivalent effort to NDC implementation before 2030
2 °C/1.5 °C Each country implements current implemented polices until 2020 and starts with cost-effective implementation to achieve the 2 °C/1.5 °C target between 2020 and 2030 with high (>66%) probability, thereby staying within a global carbon budget of 1000 GtCO2 and 400 GtCO2 in the 2011–2100 period Continuation of cost-effective implementation to achieve the 2 °C/1.5 °C target