Table 2.
Prediction model derivations, according to readmission outcomes in the training set using 1000 bootstrap samples
| Predictors | Overall 30-day readmission |
Early readmission (within 7 days after discharge) |
Late readmission (8–30 days after discharge) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Reference modela OR (95%CI) |
Optimized modelb OR (95%CI) |
Reference modela OR (95%CI) |
Optimized modelb OR (95%CI) |
Reference modela OR (95%CI) |
Optimized modelb OR (95%CI) |
|
| Age (continuous variable), year | 0.99 (0.98–1.01) | 0.99 (0.98–1.01) | 1.00 (0.98–1.03) | 1.00 (0.98–1.02) | 0.99 (0.97–1.01) | 0.99 (0.97–1.01) |
| Respiratory diseases | 0.81 (0.55–1.18) | 0.80 (0.54–1.16) | 1.44 (0.86–2.39) | 1.40 (0.83–2.32) | 0.48 (0.27–0.83) | 0.47 (0.26–0.81) |
| Cardiac diseases | 1.49 (1.03–2.19) | 1.52 (1.04–2.24) | 0.83 (0.50–1.39) | 0.81 (0.48–1.37) | 2.39 (1.44–4.13) | 2.62 (1.56–4.57) |
| Neoplasms | 0.42 (0.10–1.21) | 0.42 (0.10–1.21) | 0.70 (0.11–2.40) | 0.71 (0.11–2.48) | 0.24 (0.01–1.19) | 0.25 (0.01–1.23) |
| Endocrine diseases | 0.71 (0.48–1.04) | 0.70 (0.47–1.02) | 0.77 (0.44–1.31) | 0.74 (0.41–1.26) | 0.67 (0.40–1.08) | 0.69 (0.41–1.13) |
| Gastrointestinal diseases | 1.04 (0.70–1.51) | 1.04 (0.70–1.53) | 0.86 (0.48–1.49) | 0.86 (0.47–1.51) | 1.17 (0.71–1.88) | 1.12 (0.67–1.84) |
| Hematologic diseases | 0.95 (0.57–1.54) | 0.90 (0.53–1.47) | 1.02 (0.48–1.98) | 0.96 (0.44–1.88) | 0.88 (0.44–1.63) | 0.89 (0.44–1.67) |
| Psychiatric diseases | 0.99 (0.67–1.43) | 0.95 (0.64–1.39) | 1.32 (0.77–2.20) | 1.17 (0.68–1.99) | 0.78 (0.47–1.27) | 0.80 (0.48–1.32) |
| Central nervous system diseases | 1.39 (0.66–2.72) | 1.44 (0.68–2.85) | 1.37 (0.46–3.31) | 1.39 (0.46–3.42) | 1.31 (0.47–3.06) | 1.47 (0.52–3.50) |
| Musculoskeletal diseases | 1.85 (0.83–3.87) | 1.80 (0.79–3.79) | 1.99 (0.65–4.99) | 1.77 (0.57–4.58) | 1.68 (0.54–4.35) | 1.90 (0.60–5.09) |
| Other diseases | 1.03 (0.47–2.04) | 1.09 (0.50–2.20) | 1.05 (0.30–2.74) | 1.23 (0.35–3.31) | 1.01 (0.37–2.33) | 0.97 (0.35–2.29) |
| Mechanical ventilation use | 1.38 (0.69–2.59) | 1.38 (0.69–2.62) | 2.32 (1.01–4.83) | 2.29 (0.98–4.88) | 0.73 (0.21–1.91) | 0.69 (0.20–1.83) |
| Socioeconomic factors | ||||||
| Educational level | ||||||
| 8th grade or less | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | |||
| Some high school education | 0.82 (0.49–1.38) | 0.94 (0.45–1.99) | 0.66 (0.35–1.25) | |||
| High school graduate | 0.67 (0.42–1.10) | 0.59 (0.30–1.20) | 1.22 (0.47–3.00) | |||
| Not responded | 1.15 (0.38–3.10) | 1.03 (0.21–3.72) | 0.89 (0.46–1.75) | |||
| Marital status (currently married) | 0.85 (0.56–1.26) | 0.59 (0.32–1.06) | 1.22 (0.73–2.03) | |||
| Number of children | ||||||
| 0 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | |||
| 1 | 0.72 (0.37–1.42) | 1.10 (0.47–2.66) | 0.45 (0.16–1.22) | |||
| ≥ 2 | 0.81 (0.48–1.41) | 0.62 (0.31–1.37) | 0.99 (0.49–2.13) | |||
| Limitations on activities and social life | 1.00 (0.69–1.46) | 0.97 (0.58–1.66) | 1.03 (0.63–1.70) | |||
|
Poverty status (Annual household income <$25,000) |
0.95 (0.63–1.42) | 0.47 (0.26–0.82) | 1.78 (1.03–3.13) | |||
| Living in metropolitan area | 0.79 (0.55–1.13) | 0.71 (0.42–1.19) | 0.81 (0.51–1.31) | |||
Abbreviations: OR Odds ratio, CI Confidence interval
aThe reference model includes the variables derived from the Centres for Medicare and Medicaid Services Readmission Measurements
bThe optimized model includes socioeconomic factors in addition to the variables in the reference model. Details of comorbidities are shown in Table S2