Table 1. Expected parameter values derived from the literature.

Parameter	Description	Expected value [Range: min, max]	Distribution	Reference(s)
rh	Human birth rate	1/(25·365) = 0.00011 [1/(30·365) = 0.000091, 1/(20·365) = 0.00013] days-1	Uniform	[23]; also, consistent with 0.04 yr-1 [26]
dh	Natural human death rate	1/(25·365) = 0.00011 [1/(30·365) = 0.000091, 1/(20·365) = 0.00013] days-1	Uniform	[23]; also, consistent with 0.04 yr-1 [26]
βp	Pneumonic plague transmission rate in humans	0.08 [0.01, 1] days-1	Uniform	0.0734 (SE = 0.00005) [27]; 0.08 [28]; 0.084 [19];0.42–0.48 [16];
σp−1	Duration of pneumonic incubation rate in humans	4.3 [2.5–6.1] days	Normal	[27]; 2–4 days [18]
γp−1	Duration of pneumonic infection period in humans	2.5 [1.3–3.7] days	Normal	[27]
βr	Transmission rate from fleas to rats	1.248 [0–3.67] fleas-1 days-1	Triangle	0.04–0.14 days-1 [16]; 0–3.67 days-1 *calculated from percent per flea transmission efficiency/days post infection at 23°C [29]
α	Flea searching efficiency	3/Sr(t = 0) [0.39 < αKr< 20] rats-1	Uniform	[26,30]
rr	Reproductive rate in rats	0.014 [0.011, 0.016] rats days-1	Uniform	5/365 days [25,26]
Kr	Carrying capacity of rats	Nr(t = 0) [0.5Nr(t = 0), 1.5Nr(t = 0)] rats	Uniform	Varied in conjunction with sensitivity analysis on initial condition (Nr)
dr	Natural death rate in rats	0.2 year-1 /365 = 0.00055 [0.1/365 = 0.00027, 0.3/365 = 0.00082] days-1	Uniform	[25,26]
pr	Probability of rats inheriting resistance	0.65 [0.4–0.9]	Uniform	0.5 [31]; 0.5–0.9 [32]; 0.4–0.8 [33]
γr−1	Duration of bubonic plague infectious period in rats	5.15 [4.71–5.59] days	Normal	Based on low-moderate infection doses in rats outside of plague endemic areas in Madagascar [32]
gr	Probability of rats recovering from bubonic plague	0.06 [0.0–0.37]	Triangle	“24–37% of rats surviving a low- dose infection . . .compared with only 0–6% at high dose” [32]
rf	Growth rate of fleas	0.0084 [0.0084, 20/365 = 0.055] fleas/day	Uniform	[16,25,26]
Kf	Flea carrying capacity per rat	6 [3.29, 11.17] fleas	Normal	[16,25,26]
df−1	Flea lifespan	5 [1, 11.66] days	Triangle	[16,34]
βb	Transmission rate for bubonic plague from rat fleas to humans	0.19 [0.01, 1] days-1	Uniform	0.18–0.20 [16]
σb−1	Duration of bubonic plague incubation period in humans	4 [2, 6] days	Triangle	[35]; 4.3 days [36]
γb−1	Duration of bubonic plague infectious period in humans	10 [3, 10] days	Triangle	3.4 days [36]; 4–10 days [37]; 10 days [16];
gh	Probability of humans recovering from bubonic plague	0.34 [0.30, 0.40]	Triangle	0.40 [16]; “Among 511 plague cases occurring before 1942 (pre-antibiotics) with outcome information, 336 (66%) were fatal” [38]
p	Probability of human bubonic plague developing into secondary pneumonic plague	0.10 [0, 0.15]	Triangle	3% [36]; <5% [18]; ~10% [39]; 8–10% [37]; ~12% [40]; 5–15% [41]

Here we include the parameter, its description, expected value, range tested during the global sensitivity analysis (LHS-PRCC), and type of distribution used for sampling.