Table 2.

Estimated case numbers based on the baseline assumptions and alternative scenarios.

	Effective catchment population	Detection window (day)	Total cases (95% CI)
Baseline	81 800 269	10	16 533 (5925–35 538)
Smaller catchment	60 000 000	10	12 125 (4345–12 145)
Shorter detection window	81 800 269	8	20 667 (7408–44 424)
90% load factor	81 800 269	10	18 368 (6583–39 482)
70% load factor	81 800 269	10	23 627 (8472–50 780)

CI, confidence interval.