Table 5:

Univariate and Multivariate Logistic Regression Models for Different Complications (N=462^***)

	Geriatric Complications				Surgical Complications				Geriatric Post-discharge Needs
Predictor	Odds Ratio	P-Value	95% CI	AUC	Odds Ratio	P-Value	95% CI	AUC	Odds Ratio	P-Value	95% CI	AUC
Univariate Logistic Regression Model 1: Age only
Age	1.0	0.228	1.0 – 1.1	0.54	1.0	0.352	1.0 – 1.1	0.54	1.0	0.033	1.0 – 1.1	0.55
Multivariate Logistic Regression Model 2: Age and ASA Score
Age	1.0	0.528	1.0 – 1.1	0.66	1.0	0.528	1.0 – 1.1	0.64	1.0	0.064	1.0 – 1.1	0.63
ASA Score ≥ 3	3.4	<0.001	2.1 – 5.4		2.9	<0.001	1.8 – 4.7		2.4	<0.001	1.7 – 3.5
Multivariate Logistic Regression Model 3: Age, ASA Score, and VESPA score
Age	1.0	0.17	1.0 – 1.1	0.83	1.0	0.45	1.0 – 1.1	0.73	1.0	0.035	1.0 – 1.1	0.78
ASA Score ≥ 3	2.7	<0.001	1.6 – 4.5		2.4	<0.001	1.5 – 4.0		1.9	0.001	1.3 – 3.0
VESPA Score*	1.3	<0.001	1.2 – 1.4		1.1	<0.001	1.1 – 1.2		1.3	<0.001	1.2 – 1.3
Logistic Regression Model 4: VESPA score **
VESPA Score*	1.3¥	<0.001	1.2 – 1.4	0.83	1.2§	<0.001	1.1 – 1.2	0.70	1.3⌘	<0.001	1.2 – 1.3	0.77

ASA = American Society of Anesthesiologists; AUC = area under the curve

^*The Odds Ratio of VESPA score is for each point on the 0–20 scoring scale.

^**The VESPA score was controlled for age, with the mean age (78) used to estimate the probabilities.

^***18 patients without a VESPA score due to missing observations in “patient reported inability to manage self-care alone after discharge” were excluded from the analysis.

^¥:Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 0.82

^§:Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 0.56

^⌘:Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 0.40