Table 3.

Final hierarchical pain predictive model

	Model 4: significant baseline and follow-up predictors (N = 13,545)
	OR (95%CI)	Z (p-value)
Baseline Variables
Female gender	1.34 (1.18–1.51)	4.61 (<.001)
Engage in vigorous exercise	2.51 (2.18–2.89)	12.71 (<.001)
Bereavement	1.88 (1.65–2.15)	9.39 (<.001)
Obesity	1.36 (1.18–1.57)	4.20 (<.001)
Follow-up Variables
Low energy level/Fatigue	1.93 (1.68–2.20)	9.27 (<.001)
Self-rated health – average to moderate (vs. good)	1.57 (1.36–1.82)	6.04 (<.001)
Self-rated health – poor (vs. good)	2.20 (1.71–2.83)	6.13 (<.001)
Difficulties with walking	1.69 (1.43–1.99)	6.12 (<.001)
Sleep problems	1.80 (1.58–2.05)	8.97 (<.001)

Note: Hosmer-Lemeshow’s p-value = .001; AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.76–0.78)