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. 2020 Apr 30;25(17):2000257. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.17.2000257

Table 3. Parameter estimates and credible intervals of generation and serial interval distributions of COVID-19 when allowing serial intervals to be negative and assuming an incubation period with a mean of 5.2 and a SD of 2.8 days, Singapore, 21 January–26 February 2020; Tianjin, China, 14 January–27 February 2020.

Dataset Scenario Interval Estimate (95% credible interval) (days)
Mean SD
Singaporea Allowing for all possible negative SI GI 3.86 (2.22 - 5.60) 2.65 (0.87 - 5.43)
SI 3.86 (−5.15 - 13.88) 4.76 (4.05 - 6.72)
Tianjin (China)b Allowing for all possible negative SI GI 2.90 (1.85 - 4.12) 2.86 (1.37 - 5.04)
SI 2.90 (−6.12 - 13.47) 4.88 (4.19 - 6.41)

COVID-19: coronavirus disease; GI: generation interval; SD: standard deviation; SI: serial interval.

a Source: Ministry of Health (https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/, as at 26 February).

b Source: Tianjin Municipal Health Commission (http://www.tjbd.gov.cn/zjbd/gsgg/, as at 27 February).