Table 3. Parameter estimates and credible intervals of generation and serial interval distributions of COVID-19 when allowing serial intervals to be negative and assuming an incubation period with a mean of 5.2 and a SD of 2.8 days, Singapore, 21 January–26 February 2020; Tianjin, China, 14 January–27 February 2020.
| Dataset | Scenario | Interval | Estimate (95% credible interval) (days) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | SD | |||
| Singaporea | Allowing for all possible negative SI | GI | 3.86 (2.22 - 5.60) | 2.65 (0.87 - 5.43) |
| SI | 3.86 (−5.15 - 13.88) | 4.76 (4.05 - 6.72) | ||
| Tianjin (China)b | Allowing for all possible negative SI | GI | 2.90 (1.85 - 4.12) | 2.86 (1.37 - 5.04) |
| SI | 2.90 (−6.12 - 13.47) | 4.88 (4.19 - 6.41) | ||
COVID-19: coronavirus disease; GI: generation interval; SD: standard deviation; SI: serial interval.
a Source: Ministry of Health (https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/, as at 26 February).
b Source: Tianjin Municipal Health Commission (http://www.tjbd.gov.cn/zjbd/gsgg/, as at 27 February).