Table 3.
One-way sensitivity analyses* of model parameters (mean per 100 000 persons) by strategy
| Costs (£ millions) | Quality-adjusted life years | Primary prevention versus early detection | Primary prevention versus no intvn | |||||||
| Early detection | Primary prevention | No intvn | Early detection | Primary prevention | No intvn | Incremental cost (£m) | Incremental QALYs | Incremental cost (£m) | Incremental QALYs | |
| Base case (30 years duration, age 50, 3% discounting costs and QALYs) | 493.5 | 386.4 | 406.1 | 1 821 195 | 1 822 937 | 1 821 201 | −107.1 | 1742 | −19.7 | 1736 |
| Cost of wbCSE in high users(base AU$112.80) | ||||||||||
| Cost of wbCSE in high users=$55.58 | 441.3 | 386.4 | 406.1 | 1 821 195 | 1 822 937 | 1 821 201 | −54.9 | 1742 | −19.7 | 1736 |
| Cost of wbCSE in high users=$169.20 | 545.4 | 386.4 | 406.1 | 1 821 195 | 1 822 937 | 1 821 201 | −159.0 | 1742 | −19.7 | 1736 |
| Prob thick melanoma (base 0.25) | ||||||||||
| Prob thick melanoma=0.21 | 488.2 | 386.4 | 406.1 | 1 821 686 | 1 822 937 | 1 821 201 | −101.8 | 1251 | −19.7 | 1736 |
| Prob thick melanoma=0.29 | 497.7 | 386.4 | 406.1 | 1 820 811 | 1 822 937 | 1 821 201 | −111.3 | 2126 | −19.7 | 1736 |
| Rate reduction in benign lesions from sunscreen (base 0.76) | ||||||||||
| RR 0.66 | 493.5 | 381.1 | 406.1 | 1 821 195 | 1 822 822 | 1 821 201 | −112.4 | 1627 | −25.1 | 1621 |
| RR 0.86 | 493.5 | 392.1 | 406.1 | 1 821 195 | 1 823 055 | 1 821 201 | −101.5 | 1860 | −14.0 | 1854 |
| KC utility (base 0.98) | ||||||||||
| Utility 0.95 | 493.5 | 386.4 | 406.1 | 1 819 784 | 1 821 928 | 1 819 831 | −107.1 | 2145 | −19.8 | 2097 |
| Utility 0.99 | 493.5 | 386.4 | 406.1 | 1 821 408 | 1 823 086 | 1 821 408 | −107.1 | 1677 | −19.8 | 1677 |
| Rate reduction in melanoma from sunscreen (base 0.50) | ||||||||||
| RR 0.45 | 493.5 | 384.2 | 406.1 | 1 821 195 | 1 823 158 | 1 821 201 | −109.3 | 1963 | −21.9 | 1957 |
| RR 0.55 | 493.5 | 388.5 | 406.1 | 1 821 195 | 1 822 720 | 1 821 201 | −105.0 | 1525 | −17.6 | 1519 |
| Mortality prob of thick— 5 years: 0.233; 10 years: 0.301 | ||||||||||
| Prob 0.27 to 0.34 | 494.3 | 386.8 | 407.0 | 1 821 065 | 1 822 867 | 1 821 069 | −107.5 | 1802 | 20.1 | 1799 |
| Prob 0.19 to 0.26 | 492.4 | 385.8 | 405.0 | 1 821 376 | 1 823 035 | 1 821 387 | −106.6 | 1659 | 19.2 | 1648 |
Bold values are the main analysis results to compare with the other sensitivity analyses result.
*Analyses were performed by changing the parameter of interest and rerunning the model with 5000 Monte Carlo simulations.
KC, keratinocyte cancers; QALYs, quality-adjusted life years; RR, relative risk; wbCSE, whole-body clinical skin examination.