Fig. 10.

Histogram for the maximum incidence dates for $q=0.7$. We run the simulations for $b_a$, $b_s$, ${\eta }_a$ and ${\eta }_s$ varying within their corresponding 95% credible intervals reported in Table 1. (a) Estimated infectious periods for asymptomatically ($1∕{\eta }_a=5.97$) and symptomatically ($1∕{\eta }_s=10.81$) infectious individuals. (b) Infectious periods for asymptomatically and symptomatically infected individuals are equal ($1∕{\eta }_a=1∕{\eta }_s=5.97$). Note that the mode of the empirical distribution is located around the middle of May and that the distribution allows for later peak dates.