Table 1. Model Inputs and Parameter Estimates.
| Parametera | Value (range) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Viremic HCV rate, % | 77.0 | Seeff,28 2002 |
| Disease progression rate, % | ||
| Acute HCV to spontaneous clearance | 23.0 (15.0-45.0) | Seeff et al,30 2001 |
| Acute HCV to F0 | 77.0 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Harris et al,31 2014 |
| F0 to F1 | (4.4-21.8) | Kwon et al,21 2019; Harris et al,31 2014 |
| F1 to F2 | (3.4-14.3) | Kwon et al,21 2019; Harris et al,31 2014 |
| F2 to F3 | (4.5-22.4) | Kwon et al,21 2019; Harris et al,31 2014 |
| F3 to F4 | (4.7-20.0) | Kwon et al,21 2019; Harris et al,31 2014 |
| F3 to HCC | 0.2 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Bernfort et al,32 2006 |
| F4 to DC | 3.0 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Bernfort et al,32 2006 |
| F4 to HCC | 3.6 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Bernfort et al,32 2006 |
| DC to liver-associated death | 20.0 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Bernfort et al,32 2006; Ries et al,33 2007 |
| HCC to liver-associated death | ||
| First year | 70.7 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Bernfort et al,32 2006; Ries et al,33 2007 |
| Subsequent years | 16.2 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Bernfort et al,32 2006; Ries et al,33 2007 |
| Reduction in progression rate from F3 or F4 to HCC among cured individuals | 77.0 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Morgan et al,34 2013 |
| Reduction in progression rate from F4 to DC among cured individuals | 76.0 | Kwon et al,21 2019; DiMarco et al,35 2016; Nahon et al,36 2017 |
| Reduction in liver-associated mortality among cured individuals with DC and HCC | 50.0 | Kwon et al,21 2019 |
| Background death rate | 1.8 | Kwon et al,21 2019; Human Mortality Database37 |
| Standard mortality ratio | ||
| Injection drug use | 10.0 (9.5-29.9) | Frischer et al,38 1997; Engstrom et al,39 1991; Oppenheimer et al,40 1994; Hickman et al,41 2003; Bjornaas et al,42 2008; Perucci et al,43 1991 |
| Transfusion | 2.1 (1.3-17.6) | Kamper-Jorgensen et al,44 2008 |
Abbreviations: DC, decompensated cirrhosis; F0, stage 0 fibrosis (no fibrosis); F1, stage 1 fibrosis (portal fibrosis without septa); F2, stage 2 fibrosis (portal fibrosis with few septa); F3, stage 3 fibrosis (portal fibrosis with numerous septa but without cirrhosis); F4, stage 4 fibrosis (cirrhosis); HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HCV, hepatitis C virus; SVR, sustained virologic response.
a
Additional input parameters (population size and age distribution, HCV prevalence, new viremic HCV diagnoses, new infections, number treated, and SVR rates) are presented in detail in eTables 1-3, 5, and 7 in the Supplement.