Table 3. HCV-Associated Health Outcomes in 2030 by Treatment Scenarioa.
| Outcome | Mean (95% CI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2017 | Optimistic | Aggressive | Gradual decrease | Rapid decrease | Very aggressive | |
| HCV infection prevalence | 180 142 (122 786-196 862) | 37 246 (671-51 055) | 26 291 (520-40 125) | 37 721 (667-51 543) | 59 618 (14 977-73 495) | 1262 (436-10 987) |
| Fibrosis stage | ||||||
| F0 | 34 755 (21 547-50 911) | 5073 (522-8384) | 4020 (464-6954) | 5218 (521-8561) | 7527 (2395-11 629) | 805 (408-2447) |
| F1 | 63 750 (41 323-79 381) | 8508 (49-14 422) | 6044 (27-10 860) | 8676 (44-14 587) | 13 794 (3048-21 290) | 158 (20-2765) |
| F2 | 29 345 (17 540-31 571) | 5799 (8-8990) | 4039 (1-6971) | 5881 (4-9038) | 9447 (1963-13 244) | 76 (1-1808) |
| F3 | 29 409 (10 677-39 383) | 8409 (9-10 916) | 5780 (0-8225) | 8480 (4-10 986) | 13 640 (2839-16 587) | 106 (0-2108) |
| F4 | 18 955 (5637-27 106) | 7978 (11-10 045) | 5390 (0-7379) | 7983 (5-10 068) | 12 856 (2421-15 374) | 98 (0-1889) |
| Decompensated cirrhosis | ||||||
| Total | 2350 (623-3859) | 838 (150-1149) | 580 (132-836) | 828 (150-1138) | 1292 (274-1755) | 252 (121-363) |
| Viremic HCV | 2241 (554-3734) | 630 (1-908) | 363 (0-588) | 621 (0-897) | 1108 (130-1521) | 6 (0-112) |
| Cured HCV | 110 (71-145) | 208 (110-294) | 217 (113-307) | 207 (109-292) | 184 (99-258) | 247 (120-336) |
| Hepatocellular carcinoma | ||||||
| Total | 1310 (530-2282) | 640 (188-893) | 527 (176-714) | 638 (187-896) | 841 (276-1257) | 314 (160-426) |
| Viremic HCV | 1176 (421-2104) | 380 (1-618) | 254 (0-421) | 379 (1-616) | 611 (116-988) | 5 (0-84) |
| Cured HCV | 135 (91-174) | 260 (144-358) | 273 (148-374) | 259 (142-356) | 231 (130-315) | 309 (160-417) |
| Liver transplant | 511 (288-563) | 470 (1-514) | 398 (1-514) | 483 (1-525) | 635 (215-660) | 8 (0-129) |
| Liver-associated death | ||||||
| Total | 1215 (400-1788) | 755 (249-939) | 636 (227-803) | 752 (249-936) | 966 (334-1201) | 434 (207-599) |
| Viremic HCV | 1124 (338-1674) | 389 (0-504) | 253 (0-355) | 387 (0-506) | 640 (103-796) | 5 (0-79) |
| Cured HCV | 91 (61-114) | 466 (189-515) | 384 (195-541) | 365 (188-512) | 327 (173-453) | 430 (206-595) |
| Year of outcome achievement | ||||||
| 90% diagnosed with HCVb | 2022 | 2022 | 2022 | 2022 | 2022 | |
| 80% treated for HCV | 2030 | 2028 | 2030 | 2034 | 2027 | |
| 80% decrease in HCV incidenceb | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | |
| 65% decrease in liver-associated death | ||||||
| Viremic HCV only | 2030 | 2028 | 2030 | 2034 | 2026 | |
| Viremic and cured HCV | 2034 | 2033 | 2034 | 2040 | 2030 | |
| Year of all target outcome achievement | ||||||
| Viremic HCV only | 2030 | 2028 | 2030 | 2034 | 2027 | |
| Viremic and cured HCV | 2034 | 2033 | 2034 | 2040 | 2030 | |
Abbreviations: F0, stage 0 fibrosis (no fibrosis); F1, stage 1 fibrosis (portal fibrosis without septa); F2, stage 2 fibrosis (portal fibrosis with few septa); F3, stage 3 fibrosis (portal fibrosis with numerous septa but without cirrhosis); F4, stage 4 fibrosis (cirrhosis); HCV, hepatitis C virus.
a
Best estimate.
b
Fixed within model.