Mortality in chemotherapy trials during the active study period | ||||||||||
ESA arm | Control arm | ESA versus control | ||||||||
Subgroups | Patients | events | sample | % | events | sample | % | HR | 95% CI | p value* |
Patient level characteristics | ||||||||||
Hb at baseline (continuous) | 0.87 | |||||||||
Hb at baseline (cat 1) | 0.90 | |||||||||
Hb ≤ 8 g/dL | 569 | 52 | 321 | 16% | 34 | 248 | 14% | 1.20 | 0.78‐1.86 | |
Hb 8‐≤ 10 g/dL | 2888 | 188 | 1606 | 12% | 156 | 1282 | 12% | 1.07 | 0.86‐1.33 | |
Hb 10‐≤ 12 g/dL | 3748 | 213 | 2121 | 10% | 171 | 1627 | 11% | 1.10 | 0.90‐1.34 | |
Hb 12‐≤ 14 g/dL | 2185 | 119 | 1108 | 11% | 100 | 1077 | 9% | 1.23 | 0.94‐1.60 | |
Hb >14 g/dL | 555 | 29 | 286 | 10% | 25 | 269 | 9% | 0.96 | 0.56‐1.65 | |
Unknown | 496 | 4 | 234 | 2% | 4 | 262 | 2% | 0.76 | 0.19‐3.05 | |
Hb at baseline (cat 2) | 0.99 | |||||||||
Hb ≤ 8 g/dL | 569 | 52 | 321 | 16% | 34 | 248 | 14% | 1.21 | 0.78‐1.86 | |
Hb 8‐≤ 9 g/dL | 949 | 72 | 549 | 13% | 59 | 400 | 15% | 1.01 | 0.72‐1.44 | |
Hb 9‐≤ 10 g/dL | 1939 | 116 | 1057 | 11% | 97 | 882 | 11% | 1.10 | 0.84‐1.44 | |
Hb 10‐≤ 11 g/dL | 2074 | 113 | 1179 | 10% | 86 | 895 | 10% | 1.11 | 0.84‐1.47 | |
Hb 11‐≤ 12 g/dL | 1674 | 100 | 942 | 11% | 85 | 732 | 12% | 1.08 | 0.81‐1.45 | |
Hb 12‐≤ 13 g/dL | 1359 | 80 | 679 | 12% | 68 | 680 | 10% | 1.26 | 0.91‐1.74 | |
Hb 13‐≤ 14 g/dL | 826 | 39 | 429 | 9% | 32 | 397 | 8% | 1.19 | 0.74‐1.89 | |
Hb >14 g/dL | 555 | 29 | 286 | 10% | 25 | 269 | 9% | 0.96 | 0.56‐1.65 | |
Unknown | 496 | 4 | 234 | 2% | 4 | 262 | 2% | 0.77 | 0.19‐3.07 | |
Malignancy type | ||||||||||
Tumour (cat. 1) | 0.18 | |||||||||
Haematological malignancies | 1832 | 99 | 1034 | 10% | 65 | 798 | 8% | 1.12 | 0.81‐1.54 | |
Solid tumours | 7967 | 464 | 4311 | 11% | 379 | 3656 | 10% | 1.14 | 0.99‐1.31 | |
Other | 600 | 38 | 314 | 12% | 43 | 286 | 15% | 0.74 | 0.48‐1.15 | |
Missing / unknown | 42 | 4 | 17 | 24% | 3 | 25 | 12% | 1.96 | 0.44‐8.81 | |
Tumour (cat. 2) | 0.15 | |||||||||
Haematological malignancies | 1832 | 99 | 1034 | 10% | 65 | 798 | 8% | 1.11 | 0.81‐1.53 | |
Breast cancer | 4038 | 209 | 2076 | 10% | 152 | 1962 | 8% | 1.38 | 1.12‐1.70 | |
Head and neck cancer | 26 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 2 | 14 | 14% | 0.63 | 0.06‐6.99 | |
Lung cancer | 2237 | 187 | 1172 | 16% | 173 | 1065 | 16% | 1.03 | 0.83‐1.26 | |
Gastrointestinal cancer | 429 | 32 | 267 | 12% | 26 | 162 | 16% | 0.81 | 0.48‐1.37 | |
Gynaecological cancer | 1077 | 28 | 681 | 4% | 18 | 396 | 5% | 1.06 | 0.59‐1.95 | |
Genitourinary cancer | 160 | 7 | 103 | 7% | 8 | 57 | 14% | 0.61 | 0.22‐1.72 | |
Other | 600 | 38 | 314 | 12% | 43 | 286 | 15% | 0.74 | 0.48‐1.15 | |
Missing / unknown | 42 | 4 | 17 | 24% | 3 | 25 | 12% | 1.92 | 0.43‐8.62 | |
Sex | ||||||||||
Male | 3125 | 241 | 1720 | 14% | 209 | 1405 | 15% | 0.99 | 0.82‐1.19 | 0.14 |
Female | 7316 | 364 | 3956 | 9% | 281 | 3360 | 8% | 1.18 | 1.01‐1.39 | |
Age | ||||||||||
Age continuous | 0.57 | |||||||||
Age categorical | 0.34 | |||||||||
< 18 years | 123 | 0 | 55 | 0% | 1 | 68 | 1% | Not estimable | Not estimable | |
≥18‐35 years | 312 | 9 | 171 | 5% | 8 | 141 | 6% | 0.78 | 0.30‐2.03 | |
≥35‐45 years | 1135 | 45 | 620 | 7% | 28 | 515 | 5% | 1.34 | 0.83‐2.14 | |
≥45‐55 years | 2425 | 123 | 1311 | 9% | 93 | 1114 | 8% | 1.22 | 0.93‐1.60 | |
≥55‐65 years | 3233 | 175 | 1724 | 10% | 172 | 1509 | 11% | 0.93 | 0.75‐1.15 | |
≥65‐75 years | 2444 | 190 | 1359 | 14% | 146 | 1085 | 13% | 1.16 | 0.93‐1.44 | |
≥75 years | 758 | 63 | 430 | 15% | 41 | 328 | 13% | 1.28 | 0.86‐1.90 | |
Missing / unknown | 11 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 1 | 5 | 20% | Not estimable | Not estimable | |
Hct levels at baseline | ||||||||||
Hct continuous | 0.57 | |||||||||
Hct categorical | 0.22 | |||||||||
≤ 23.5% | 275 | 29 | 144 | 20% | 17 | 131 | 13% | 1.61 | 0.88‐2.94 | |
23.5‐≤ 29.4% | 2033 | 118 | 1135 | 10% | 109 | 898 | 12% | 0.96 | 0.74‐1.25 | |
29.4‐≤ 35.3% | 3281 | 208 | 1882 | 11% | 163 | 1399 | 12% | 1.02 | 0.83‐1.25 | |
35.3‐≤ 41.2% | 1801 | 152 | 931 | 16% | 115 | 870 | 13% | 1.36 | 1.07‐1.73 | |
> 41.2% | 459 | 39 | 249 | 16% | 33 | 210 | 16% | 1.07 | 0.67‐1.71 | |
Missing / unknown | 2592 | 59 | 1335 | 4% | 53 | 1257 | 4% | 1.04 | 0.72‐1.52 | |
Serum Epo at baseline | ||||||||||
Serum Epo continuous | 0.91 | |||||||||
Serum Epo categorical | 0.20 | |||||||||
< 25 mU/ml | 1032 | 68 | 608 | 11% | 41 | 424 | 10% | 1.34 | 0.91‐1.98 | |
25‐<100 mU/ml | 2083 | 110 | 1162 | 9% | 114 | 921 | 12% | 0.79 | 0.61‐1.03 | |
100‐<200 mU/ml | 518 | 45 | 314 | 14% | 28 | 204 | 14% | 1.14 | 0.71‐1.84 | |
200‐<500 mU/ml | 227 | 18 | 134 | 13% | 11 | 93 | 12% | 1.18 | 0.56‐2.51 | |
≥ 500 mU/ml | 99 | 8 | 57 | 14% | 4 | 42 | 10% | 1.01 | 0.30‐3.39 | |
Missing / unknown | 6482 | 356 | 3401 | 10% | 292 | 3081 | 9% | 1.18 | 1.01‐1.38 | |
Performance score | ||||||||||
ECOG categorical | 0.58 | |||||||||
ECOG 0 | 3025 | 77 | 1582 | 5% | 66 | 1443 | 5% | 1.23 | 0.89‐1.71 | |
ECOG 1 | 3784 | 237 | 2105 | 11% | 185 | 1679 | 11% | 1.10 | 0.91‐1.34 | |
ECOG 2 | 1140 | 137 | 623 | 22% | 114 | 517 | 22% | 1.07 | 0.84‐1.38 | |
ECOG 3 | 105 | 15 | 57 | 26% | 13 | 48 | 27% | 0.98 | 0.46‐2.07 | |
ECOG 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0% | Not estimable | Not estimable | |
ECOG missing / unknown | 2384 | 138 | 1307 | 11% | 112 | 1077 | 10% | 1.04 | 0.80‐1.33 | |
ECOG dichotomous | 1.00 | |||||||||
ECOG 0, 1, 2 | 7949 | 451 | 4310 | 10% | 365 | 3639 | 10% | 1.12 | 0.98‐1.29 | |
ECOG 3, 4 | 108 | 16 | 59 | 27% | 13 | 49 | 27% | 1.12 | 0.54‐2.34 | |
ECOG missing | 2384 | 138 | 1307 | 11% | 112 | 1077 | 10% | 1.03 | 0.80‐1.33 | |
Body mass index | ||||||||||
≤ 19 kg/m² | 607 | 43 | 292 | 15% | 45 | 315 | 14% | 0.95 | 0.63‐1.45 | 0.63 |
19‐≤ 25 kg/m² | 4283 | 262 | 2318 | 11% | 208 | 1965 | 11% | 1.11 | 0.93‐1.34 | |
25‐≤ 30 kg/m² | 2698 | 143 | 1468 | 10% | 116 | 1230 | 9% | 1.01 | 0.79‐1.30 | |
> 30 kg/m² | 1294 | 60 | 686 | 9% | 44 | 608 | 7% | 1.32 | 0.89‐1.94 | |
Missing / not reported | 1559 | 97 | 912 | 11% | 77 | 647 | 12% | 1.22 | 0.90‐1.65 | |
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History of thromboembolic events | ||||||||||
Yes | 375 | 27 | 207 | 13% | 29 | 168 | 17% | 0.76 | 0.45‐1.28 | 0.14 |
No | 6292 | 400 | 3469 | 12% | 320 | 2823 | 11% | 1.14 | 0.98‐1.32 | |
Missing / not reported | 3774 | 178 | 2000 | 9% | 141 | 1774 | 8% | 1.08 | 0.86‐1.35 | |
History of cardiovascular events | ||||||||||
Yes | 2319 | 161 | 1295 | 12% | 126 | 1024 | 12% | 1.11 | 0.88‐1.41 | 0.93 |
No | 5050 | 266 | 2721 | 10% | 223 | 2329 | 10% | 1.10 | 0.92‐1.31 | |
Missing / not reported | 3072 | 178 | 1660 | 11% | 141 | 1412 | 10% | 1.08 | 0.86‐1.35 | |
History of hypertension | ||||||||||
Yes | 1396 | 111 | 798 | 14% | 81 | 598 | 14% | 1.18 | 0.89‐1.57 | 0.61 |
No | 5271 | 316 | 2878 | 11% | 268 | 2393 | 11% | 1.08 | 0.92‐1.28 | |
Missing / not reported | 3774 | 178 | 2000 | 9% | 141 | 1774 | 8% | 1.08 | 0.86‐1.35 | |
History of diabetes mellitus | ||||||||||
Yes | 430 | 36 | 219 | 16% | 37 | 211 | 18% | 1.01 | 0.64‐1.61 | 0.74 |
No | 5149 | 350 | 2786 | 13% | 286 | 2363 | 12% | 1.10 | 0.94‐1.29 | |
Missing / not reported | 4862 | 219 | 2671 | 8% | 167 | 2191 | 8% | 1.12 | 0.91‐1.37 | |
Geographical region | ||||||||||
Northern America | 2083 | 92 | 1088 | 8% | 95 | 995 | 10% | 0.95 | 0.71‐1.26 | 0.35 |
Northern, Western & Southern Europe | 6082 | 341 | 3342 | 10% | 267 | 2740 | 10% | 1.05 | 0.90‐1.24 | |
Eastern Europe | 1413 | 135 | 734 | 18% | 98 | 679 | 14% | 1.34 | 1.03‐1.73 | |
Australia & New Zealand | 286 | 14 | 184 | 8% | 7 | 102 | 7% | 1.59 | 0.64‐3.95 | |
Other | 189 | 13 | 106 | 12% | 13 | 83 | 16% | 0.90 | 0.42‐1.94 | |
Missing / not reported | 388 | 10 | 222 | 5% | 10 | 166 | 6% | 1.02 | 0.42‐2.45 | |
Tumour stage | ||||||||||
Metastatic / advanced | 6054 | 491 | 3325 | 15% | 388 | 2729 | 14% | 1.16 | 1.01‐1.32 | 0.61 |
Not metastatic / not advanced | 2902 | 25 | 1491 | 2% | 24 | 1411 | 2% | 1.00 | 0.57‐1.75 | |
Missing / not reported | 1485 | 89 | 860 | 10% | 78 | 625 | 12% | 0.82 | 0.60‐1.12 | |
Planned Hb ceiling | ||||||||||
Planned Hb ceiling (cat 1) | 0.28 | |||||||||
≤Hb 13.0 g/dL | 1631 | 47 | 841 | 6% | 49 | 790 | 6% | 0.83 | 0.56‐1.25 | |
Hb 13.0 ‐ ≤15.0 g/dL | 8451 | 523 | 4630 | 11% | 415 | 3821 | 11% | 1.14 | 1.00‐1.30 | |
Hb >15.0 g/dL | 280 | 20 | 150 | 13% | 21 | 130 | 16% | 0.90 | 0.48‐1.67 | |
Other | 79 | 15 | 55 | 27% | 5 | 24 | 21% | 1.43 | 0.52‐3.93 | |
Planned Hb ceiling (cat 2) | 0.38 | |||||||||
≤Hb 13.0 g/dL | 1631 | 47 | 841 | 6% | 49 | 790 | 6% | 0.83 | 0.56‐1.25 | |
Hb 13.0 – ≤14.0 g/dL | 5930 | 323 | 3200 | 10% | 277 | 2730 | 10% | 1.10 | 0.93‐1.29 | |
Hb 14.0 – ≤15.0 g/dL | 2521 | 200 | 1430 | 14% | 138 | 1091 | 13% | 1.22 | 0.98‐1.52 | |
>Hb 15.0 g/dL | 280 | 20 | 150 | 13% | 21 | 130 | 16% | 0.90 | 0.48‐1.67 | |
Other | 79 | 15 | 55 | 27% | 5 | 24 | 21% | 1.43 | 0.52‐3.93 | |
Study level characteristics | ||||||||||
Iron supplementation | ||||||||||
Fixed iron supplementation | 1904 | 40 | 947 | 4% | 40 | 957 | 4% | 1.00 | 0.64‐1.55 | 0.52 |
Iron supplementation as needed | 8313 | 549 | 4620 | 12% | 429 | 3693 | 12% | 1.12 | 0.99‐1.28 | |
Other | 224 | 16 | 109 | 15% | 21 | 115 | 18% | 0.79 | 0.41‐1.51 | |
Planned ESA treatment duration | ||||||||||
up to 8 weeks | 143 | 3 | 114 | 3% | 2 | 29 | 7% | 0.38 | 0.06‐2.30 | 0.20 |
9‐16 weeks | 3823 | 183 | 2075 | 9% | 167 | 1748 | 10% | 1.01 | 0.82‐1.25 | |
> 17 weeks | 2280 | 252 | 1184 | 21% | 192 | 1096 | 18% | 1.27 | 1.05‐1.53 | |
Until end of chemo‐ or radiotherapy | 4195 | 167 | 2303 | 7% | 129 | 1892 | 7% | 1.00 | 0.79‐1.26 | |
Planned weekly ESA dosage | ||||||||||
< 100 µg Darbepoetin or < 40000 IU Epoetin | 3733 | 208 | 2023 | 10% | 174 | 1710 | 10% | 0.96 | 0.78‐1.18 | 0.29 |
<= 100 µg Darbepoetin or = 40000 IU Epoetin | 2200 | 179 | 1101 | 16% | 144 | 1099 | 13% | 1.29 | 1.04‐1.61 | |
> 100 µg Darbepoetin or > 40000 IU Epoetin | 1998 | 86 | 987 | 9% | 76 | 1011 | 8% | 1.11 | 0.82‐1.51 | |
Other | 2510 | 132 | 1565 | 8% | 96 | 945 | 10% | 1.08 | 0.83‐1.42 | |
Planned frequency of ESA application | ||||||||||
Three times per week or more frequent | 5016 | 267 | 2853 | 9% | 210 | 2163 | 10% | 0.97 | 0.81‐1.17 | 0.05 |
Once per week | 3067 | 242 | 1528 | 16% | 185 | 1539 | 12% | 1.35 | 1.12‐1.64 | |
Every second week or less frequent | 1540 | 25 | 886 | 3% | 21 | 654 | 3% | 0.92 | 0.51‐1.68 | |
Other | 818 | 71 | 409 | 17% | 74 | 409 | 18% | 0.93 | 0.67‐1.29 | |
Placebo controlled trial | ||||||||||
Yes | 5473 | 379 | 2996 | 13% | 307 | 2477 | 12% | 1.13 | 0.97‐1.32 | 0.53 |
No | 4968 | 226 | 2680 | 8% | 183 | 2288 | 8% | 1.05 | 0.86‐1.28 | |
Randomisation | ||||||||||
Adequate | 3258 | 244 | 1693 | 14% | 202 | 1565 | 13% | 1.11 | 0.92‐1.34 | 0.88 |
Unclear | 7183 | 361 | 3983 | 9% | 288 | 3200 | 9% | 1.09 | 0.93‐1.28 | |
Concealment of allocation | ||||||||||
Adequate | 8252 | 545 | 4501 | 12% | 423 | 3751 | 11% | 1.15 | 1.01‐1.30 | 0.07 |
Unclear | 2189 | 60 | 1175 | 5% | 67 | 1014 | 7% | 0.81 | 0.57‐1.16 | |
Endpoint survival | ||||||||||
Primary endpoint | 2731 | 221 | 1352 | 16% | 177 | 1379 | 13% | 1.29 | 1.06‐1.57 | 0.11 |
Secondary endpoint | 3222 | 189 | 1730 | 11% | 147 | 1492 | 10% | 1.04 | 0.84‐1.30 | |
Safety /adverse events | 4488 | 195 | 2594 | 8% | 166 | 1894 | 9% | 0.96 | 0.78‐1.18 | |
Year of last patient randomized | ||||||||||
1990‐1994 | 1057 | 65 | 650 | 10% | 48 | 407 | 12% | 0.86 | 0.59‐1.26 | 0.16 |
1995‐1999 | 1725 | 95 | 1001 | 9% | 70 | 724 | 10% | 0.96 | 0.70‐1.32 | |
2000‐2004 | 6112 | 374 | 3263 | 11% | 298 | 2849 | 10% | 1.22 | 1.05‐1.43 | |
2005‐2006 | 1547 | 71 | 762 | 9% | 74 | 785 | 9% | 0.93 | 0.67‐1.29 | |
Source of data | ||||||||||
Manufacturer | 8851 | 587 | 4889 | 12% | 467 | 3962 | 12% | 1.12 | 0.99‐1.26 | 0.18 |
Clinical study group | 1590 | 18 | 787 | 2% | 23 | 803 | 3% | 0.73 | 0.39‐1.36 | |
*P value for likelihood‐ratio test, patients with missing data are excluded from the test, analysis based on one‐stage Cox fixed‐effects model stratified by study ESA= erythropoiesis‐stimulating agents |