Table 2. Summary of the epidemiology features estimation.
| Scenario interpretation | Key settings in parameters | Epidemiology features | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity to payoff gain | Effectiveness of control measures | Peak size (/1,000 population) |
Final size (%) | Date of under control | ||
| With 10-fold less sensitive to the risk | 1,000-fold of baseline | Baseline (1-fold) | 2.65 (2.29, 3.07) | 10.53 (8.35, 13.69) | Feb 28 (Feb 14, Apr 18) | |
| (1/2)-fold of baseline | 1.94 (1.70, 2.26) | 3.89 (3.51, 4.29) | Feb 24 (Feb 14, Apr 15) | |||
| (1/4)-fold of baseline | 1.70 (1.48, 1.99) | 2.90 (2.77, 3.21) | Feb 24 (Feb 13, Apr 3) | |||
| (1/8)-fold of baseline | 1.60 (1.39, 1.88) | 2.58 (2.47, 2.82) | Feb 24 (Feb 13, Apr 3) | |||
| The most probable real situation | 10,000-fold of baseline | Baseline (1-fold) | 0.28 (0.24, 0.32) | 1.35 (1.00, 2.12) | Feb 9 (Jan 31, Mar 27) | |
| (1/2)-fold of baseline | 0.20 (0.17, 0.24) | 0.40 (0.36, 0.46) | Feb 9 (Jan 28, Mar 21) | |||
| (1/4)-fold of baseline | 0.18 (0.15, 0.21) | 0.30 (0.28, 0.33) | Feb 6 (Jan 27, Mar 17) | |||
| (1/8)-fold of baseline | 0.16 (0.14, 0.19) | 0.26 (0.24, 0.29) | Feb 6 (Jan 27, Mar 17) | |||
| With additional 10-fold more sensitive to the risk | 100,000-fold of baseline |
Baseline (1-fold) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.15 (0.10, 0.22) | Jan 24 (Jan 14, Mar 26) | |
| (1/2)-fold of baseline | 0.02 (0.02, 0.03) | 0.04 (0.04, 0.05) | Jan 22 (Jan 10, Mar 10) | |||
| (1/4)-fold of baseline | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | Jan 21 (Jan 10, Mar 10) | |||
| (1/8)-fold of baseline | 0.02 (0.01, 0.02) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | Jan 21 (Jan 10, Feb 26) | |||
The ‘date of under control’ is the date when the effective reproduction number (Reff) firstly decreases below 1, which is consistent with the bottom panels of both Figures 2,3. The highlighted estimates are under the selected scenario as the approximation to the real-world situation.