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. 2020 May 9;33(4):1127–1172. doi: 10.1007/s00148-020-00778-2

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 7 — Counterfactual policy simulations. This figure displays the daily differences between the total predicted number and the actual number of daily new COVID-19 cases for each of the four counterfactual scenarios for cities outside Hubei province in mainland China. The spike on February 12 in scenario C is due to a sharp increase in daily case counts in Wuhan resulting from changes in case definitions in Hubei province (see Appendix B for details)