Table 8.
Effects of local non-pharmaceutical interventions
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLS | IV | OLS | IV | OLS | IV | |
| Average # of new cases, 1-week lag | ||||||
| Own city | 0.642*** | 0.780*** | 0.684*** | 0.805*** | 0.654*** | 0.805*** |
| (0.0644) | (0.0432) | (0.0496) | (0.0324) | (0.0566) | (0.0439) | |
| × closed management | − 0.593*** | − 0.244*** | − 0.547*** | − 0.193* | ||
| (0.162) | (0.0619) | (0.135) | (0.111) | |||
| × stay at home | − 0.597*** | − 0.278*** | − 0.0688 | − 0.110 | ||
| (0.186) | (0.0800) | (0.121) | (0.143) | |||
| Other cities | 0.00121 | − 0.00159 | 0.00167 | − 0.00108 | 0.00129 | − 0.00142 |
| wt. = inv. dist. | (0.000852) | (0.00167) | (0.00114) | (0.00160) | (0.000946) | (0.00183) |
| Wuhan | 0.00184 | 0.00382 | 0.00325* | 0.00443 | 0.00211 | 0.00418 |
| wt. = inv. dist. | (0.00178) | (0.00302) | (0.00179) | (0.00314) | (0.00170) | (0.00305) |
| Wuhan | 0.00298 | 0.00110 | − 0.00187 | − 0.000887 | 0.00224 | − 3.26e-07 |
| wt. = pop. flow | (0.00264) | (0.00252) | (0.00304) | (0.00239) | (0.00254) | (0.00260) |
| Average # of new cases, 2-week lag | ||||||
| Own city | 0.0345 | − 0.0701 | − 0.0103 | − 0.0818 | 0.0396 | − 0.0533 |
| (0.0841) | (0.0550) | (0.0921) | (0.0523) | (0.0804) | (0.0678) | |
| × closed management | − 0.367*** | − 0.103 | − 0.259** | 0.0344 | ||
| (0.0941) | (0.136) | (0.111) | (0.222) | |||
| × stay at home | − 0.294*** | − 0.102 | − 0.124* | − 0.162 | ||
| (0.0839) | (0.136) | (0.0720) | (0.212) | |||
| Other cities | − 0.00224 | − 0.00412** | − 0.00190 | − 0.00381** | − 0.00218 | − 0.00397** |
| wt. = inv. dist. | (0.00135) | (0.00195) | (0.00118) | (0.00177) | (0.00129) | (0.00192) |
| Wuhan | − 0.00512 | 0.00197 | − 0.00445 | 0.00231 | − 0.00483 | 0.00227 |
| wt. = inv. dist. | (0.00353) | (0.00367) | (0.00328) | (0.00348) | (0.00340) | (0.00376) |
| Wuhan | 0.00585*** | 0.00554*** | 0.00534*** | 0.00523*** | 0.00564*** | 0.00516*** |
| wt. = pop. flow | (0.00110) | (0.000929) | (0.00112) | (0.00104) | (0.00109) | (0.00116) |
| Observations | 8064 | 8064 | 8064 | 8064 | 8064 | 8064 |
| Number of cities | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 |
| Weather controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| City FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Date FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
The sample is from February 2 to February 29, excluding cities in Hubei province. The dependent variable is the number of daily new confirmed cases. The instrumental variables include weekly averages of daily maximum temperature, wind speed, precipitation, and the interaction between wind speed and precipitation, in the preceding third and fourth weeks, and the inverse log distance weighted averages of these variables in other cities. Additional instrumental variables are constructed by interacting these excluded instruments with variables that predict the adoption of closed management of communities or family outdoor restrictions (Table 10). The weather controls include weather characteristics in the preceding first and second weeks. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered by provinces. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1