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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 May 10.
Published in final edited form as: Epidemics. 2019 Nov 10;30:100375. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100375

Fig. 8.

Fig. 8.

Size and duration in branching processes with constant R and with quenched R, compared to Disney outbreak. (Top left) Likelihood of outbreak size within 5 cases and duration within 5 days of Disney measurements in simulation with constant R; (Top right) Distribution of size and duration given maximum likelihood constant R, constant R fit to Disney outbreak duration only, and constant R fit to Disney outbreak size only (black dot is size and duration of Disney outbreak); (Middle left) Distribution of outbreak duration given three constant R estimates (vertical line is duration of Disney outbreak); (Middle right) Distribution of outbreak size given three constant R estimates (vertical line is size of Disney outbreak); (Bottom left) Likelihood surface for Ri and τ parameters describing quenched and unquenched R; (Bottom right) Distribution of size and duration given maximum likelihood quenched R and quenched R sequence estimated by Wallinga-Teunis method (black dot is size and duration of Disney outbreak). Simulated with k = 0.40.