Table 2.
Predictions and error comparisons. Country wise predictions using Robust Weibull model and error comparison between Robust Weibull and baseline Gaussian Model. We predict the total number of cases that will be reached, and the last case date i.e. when the model predicts new cases < 1. We also predict the date when the total number will reach 97% of the total expected cases. Such data is critical to prepare the healthcare services in advance. The fit comparison metrics (with proposed model as W and baseline model as G) show that Mean Square Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the proposed model are lower than baseline for most cases. The coefficient of determination (R2) is higher for the proposed model for most of the countries. The least MSE/MAPE and highest R2 values among the two models are shown in bold. Data upto 4 May, 2020 was used to create these results.
| Country | Predictions of Robust Weibull Model |
Fit comparison metrics |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cases | Date of last case | 97% cases date | MSE (W) | MSE (G) | R2 (W) | R2 (G) | MAPE (W) | MAPE (G) | |
| United States | 1,937,724 | 11-Feb-22 | 14-Aug-20 | 9.32E+06 | 1.33E+07 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 26.58 | 1568.56 |
| Russia | 529,687 | 27-Nov-21 | 26-Sep-20 | 5.50E+04 | 5.92E+04 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 24.53 | 75.91 |
| India | 409,418 | 29-Oct-24 | 13-Aug-21 | 8.40E+03 | 9.11E+03 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 22.38 | 80.47 |
| United Kingdom | 331,124 | 31-Jul-21 | 18-Aug-20 | 2.54E+05 | 3.19E+05 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 20.14 | 211.72 |
| Ukraine | 254,087 | 10-Dec-41 | 18-Jan-31 | 3.31E+04 | 3.37E+04 | 0.53 | 0.52 | 1842.80 | 2079.70 |
| Italy | 253,022 | 7-Mar-21 | 27-Jun-20 | 1.52E+05 | 3.55E+05 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 14.55 | 1577.95 |
| Spain | 236,737 | 30-Sep-20 | 20-Apr-20 | 4.67E+05 | 6.59E+05 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 3682.04 | 2917.90 |
| Turkey | 234,218 | 22-Jun-23 | 30-Dec-20 | 2.27E+05 | 1.49E+05 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 30.95 | 555.87 |
| Germany | 181,369 | 17-Oct-20 | 2-May-20 | 3.39E+05 | 4.50E+05 | 0.91 | 0.88 | 1013.65 | 582.89 |
| France | 147,795 | 11-Oct-20 | 29-May-20 | 3.93E+05 | 4.14E+05 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 32.36 | 134.36 |
| Qatar | 143,779 | 1-Oct-22 | 18-Mar-21 | 3.71E+03 | 3.46E+03 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 99.14 | 90.02 |
| Canada | 139,331 | 7-Dec-21 | 31-Oct-20 | 2.12E+04 | 2.64E+04 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 28.19 | 210.56 |
| Belarus | 135,375 | 4-Jun-22 | 2-Feb-21 | 1.28E+04 | 1.28E+04 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1040.39 | 1101.48 |
| Iran | 126,048 | 12-Mar-21 | 15-Jul-20 | 2.11E+05 | 1.88E+05 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 1847.80 | 2313.85 |
| China | 84,171 | 6-Jul-20 | 27-Mar-20 | 1.40E+06 | 1.28E+06 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 114.04 | 202.88 |
| Sweden | 68,671 | 25-Apr-22 | 15-Feb-21 | 5.33E+03 | 5.45E+03 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 20.55 | 151.04 |
| Belgium | 65,257 | 19-Nov-20 | 27-Jun-20 | 3.88E+04 | 4.10E+04 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 18.76 | 134.34 |
| Bangladesh | 53,127 | 19-Apr-22 | 22-Feb-21 | 1.38E+03 | 1.60E+03 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 30.89 | 118.80 |
| Netherlands | 53,057 | 28-Nov-20 | 2-Jul-20 | 1.07E+04 | 1.10E+04 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 16.45 | 140.98 |
| United Arab Emirates | 46,395 | 18-Jul-21 | 5-Nov-20 | 3.30E+03 | 3.49E+03 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 840.72 | 947.02 |
| Portugal | 37,302 | 7-Jun-21 | 12-Sep-20 | 2.62E+04 | 3.20E+04 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 41.46 | 222.40 |
| Indonesia | 35,581 | 19-Sep-21 | 20-Dec-20 | 1.24E+03 | 1.22E+03 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 51.96 | 124.06 |
| Poland | 35,113 | 22-Nov-22 | 1-Aug-21 | 3.08E+03 | 3.42E+03 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 29.90 | 110.45 |
| Switzerland | 31,407 | 26-Jul-20 | 13-May-20 | 1.14E+04 | 1.39E+04 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 383.82 | 476.28 |
| Bahrain | 30,258 | 21-Mar-23 | 12-Jan-22 | 1.05E+03 | 1.04E+03 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 98.32 | 102.20 |
| Ireland | 27,694 | 6-Sep-20 | 12-Jun-20 | 1.17E+04 | 9.49E+03 | 0.84 | 0.87 | 25.91 | 21.83 |
| Singapore | 24,088 | 19-Jul-20 | 28-May-20 | 1.68E+04 | 1.69E+04 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 912.31 | 1018.38 |
| Dominican Republic | 22,193 | 19-Jun-21 | 29-Apr-20 | 1.79E+03 | 1.85E+03 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 304.96 | 420.08 |
| Romania | 22,102 | 24-Dec-20 | 10-Aug-20 | 1.98E+03 | 2.29E+03 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 16.83 | 87.83 |
| Algeria | 19,188 | 6-Feb-22 | 16-May-21 | 3.59E+02 | 3.96E+02 | 0.86 | 0.85 | 61.43 | 147.61 |
| Israel | 18,167 | 3-Aug-20 | 26-May-20 | 8.81E+03 | 1.03E+04 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 37.91 | 137.87 |
| Japan | 17,614 | 27-Jul-20 | 29-May-20 | 1.12E+04 | 1.08E+04 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 162.70 | 202.00 |
| Morocco | 16,972 | 24-May-22 | 2-Aug-21 | 1.60E+03 | 1.40E+03 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 188.07 | 171.78 |
| Serbia | 16,426 | 24-Jan-21 | 27-Aug-20 | 2.49E+03 | 2.36E+03 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 210.28 | 229.10 |
| Austria | 15,781 | 9-Jun-20 | 30-Apr-20 | 4.07E+03 | 5.33E+03 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 23.08 | 34.08 |
| Philippines | 14,371 | 24-Nov-20 | 2-Apr-20 | 5.08E+03 | 5.49E+03 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 543.57 | 698.02 |
| Denmark | 13,282 | 26-Oct-20 | 17-Jul-20 | 1.94E+03 | 1.81E+03 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 18.95 | 104.47 |
| Moldova | 12,818 | 6-Feb-22 | 12-Jun-21 | 8.78E+02 | 9.57E+02 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 36.51 | 68.69 |
| Hungary | 11,077 | 19-Jul-22 | 22-Nov-21 | 5.85E+02 | 5.66E+02 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 49.55 | 71.00 |
| South Korea | 10,780 | 4-May-20 | 2-Apr-20 | 3.35E+03 | 3.88E+03 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 55.81 | 68.84 |
| Finland | 9158 | 21-Dec-20 | 5-Sep-20 | 9.09E+02 | 9.11E+02 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 125.43 | 188.74 |
| Norway | 8534 | 23-Jul-20 | 19-Apr-20 | 1.73E+03 | 1.79E+03 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 187.65 | 211.88 |
| Czech Republic | 8528 | 14-Jul-20 | 22-May-20 | 1.34E+03 | 1.56E+03 | 0.85 | 0.83 | 20.11 | 59.31 |
| Malaysia | 7080 | 6-Aug-20 | 7-Jun-20 | 4.88E+02 | 5.73E+02 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 30.30 | 112.20 |
| Australia | 6797 | 17-May-20 | 21-Apr-20 | 2.54E+03 | 2.78E+03 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 31.85 | 36.77 |
| Oman | 4871 | 4-Sep-20 | 23-Apr-20 | 6.01E+02 | 5.98E+02 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 229.07 | 232.19 |
| Iraq | 4113 | 20-Nov-20 | 20-Apr-20 | 4.99E+02 | 5.21E+02 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 299.89 | 354.05 |
| Luxembourg | 3887 | 29-May-20 | 2-May-20 | 5.15E+02 | 6.64E+02 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 49.42 | 127.81 |
| Thailand | 3044 | 30-May-20 | 2-Apr-20 | 8.51E+02 | 9.01E+02 | 0.63 | 0.61 | 381.04 | 399.02 |
| Greece | 2944 | 7-Jul-20 | 28-Apr-20 | 3.69E+02 | 3.67E+02 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 137.87 | 127.28 |
| Croatia | 2275 | 15-Jun-20 | 18-May-20 | 8.44E+01 | 1.04E+02 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 20.64 | 45.14 |
| World | 6,734,075 | 29-Jan-24 | 11-Oct-20 | 2.91E+07 | 4.92E+07 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 47.53 | 63.36 |