Table 2. Impact of cigarette price increase on quitting, deaths averted and life-years gained in Vietnam.
Variables by
income groups |
Scenario A:
32% price increase * ‡ |
Scenario B:
62% price increase †‡ |
---|---|---|
Number of male smokers aged ≥15 years
before price increase (in millions) | ||
First (bottom 20%) | 2.2 | |
Second | 3.0 | |
Third | 3.0 | |
Fourth | 1.9 | |
Fifth (top 20%) | 1.9 | |
Total | 12.1 | |
First: fifth ratio | 1.2 | |
Number of men who quit smoking after tax
increase (in thousands) | ||
First (bottom 20%) | 376.6 | 729.7 |
Second | 433.7 | 840.3 |
Third | 358.3 | 694.1 |
Fourth | 183.5 | 355.6 |
Fifth (top 20%) | 132.9 | 257.5 |
Total | 1,485.0 | 2,877.2 |
First: fifth ratio | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Total deaths averted due to COPD, stroke,
heart disease, and cancer (in thousands) | ||
First (bottom 20%) | 159.7 | 309.4 |
Second | 183.9 | 356.2 |
Third | 151.9 | 294.3 |
Fourth | 77.8 | 150.7 |
Fifth (top 20%) | 56.3 | 109.2 |
Total | 629.6 | 1,219.8 |
First: fifth ratio | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Total life-years gained (in millions) | ||
First (bottom 20%) | 2.8 | 5.4 |
Second | 3.2 | 6.2 |
Third | 2.6 | 5.1 |
Fourth | 1.4 | 2.6 |
Fifth (top 20%) | 1.0 | 1.9 |
Total | 10.1 | 21.3 |
First: fifth ratio | 2.8 | 2.8 |
*Scenario A- Increase in ad valorem tax from the current 75% to 90% plus an introduction of a specific tax at VND3,000 per pack (equivalent to 32% increase in retail price).
† Scenario B- Increase in ad valorem tax from the current 75% to 120% plus an introduction of a specific tax at VND5,000 per pack (equivalent to 62% increase in retail price).
‡ Price elasticity used, by income group: First -0.85, second/third/fourth -0.53, fifth -0.35.