FIG. 3.

Correlation of the infection arrival times in days obtained from simulation of (9) with the shortest-path (light blue circles) and the random-walk effective distance (violet squares). The source infected node $i$ is São Paulo Guarulhos International Airport, and each point in the scatter plot corresponds to an airport $j$ in the global mobility network, with size proportional to its strength $k_j^W$. The mobility and epidemiological parameters are respectively $\alpha =0.028{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}, \beta =0.407{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$, and $\mu =0.271{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$ resulting in $\delta =1$. The Pearson correlation coefficients are $R_{\text{SP}}^2=0.96$ and $R_{\text{RW}}^2=0.99$.