Table.
Projected deaths in 1 year in high-risk group pre-COVID-19 infection across countries
|
General population (millions) |
High-risk group (millions) |
Baseline number of deaths in 1 year in high-risk group | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Older than 30 years | Older than 70 years | 70 years or younger with underlying condition | Total at high risk | ||
| Canada | 37·06 | 23·44 | 3·22 | 1·48 | 4·70 | 209 732 |
| England | 55·98 | 35·41 | 4·87 | 2·24 | 7·10 | 316 805 |
| France | 65·50 | 41·43 | 5·69 | 2·62 | 8·31 | 370 681 |
| Germany | 82·40 | 52·12 | 7·16 | 3·29 | 10·46 | 466 322 |
| Italy | 59·20 | 37·45 | 5·15 | 2·37 | 7·51 | 335 028 |
| Sweden | 10·10 | 6·39 | 0·88 | 0·40 | 1·28 | 57 158 |
| UK | 66·44 | 42·03 | 5·77 | 2·66 | 8·43 | 376 001 |
| USA | 329·10 | 208·17 | 28·60 | 13·16 | 41·76 | 1 862 459 |
All assumptions are based on England (CALIBER) estimates of 63·25% of the total population older than 30 years, 13·74% older than 70 years, 6·32% 70 years or younger with an underlying condition, and 20·06% total high-risk group; and a 1-year mortality (Kaplan-Meier) for the total high-risk group of 4·46%.