Table 1.

Modelling scenarios

	Name	Description
Scenario 1	Historical scale-up of ART and VMMC (status quo)	Status-quo scenario to match the historical scale-up of ART and VMMC by age and sex, maintaining 2016 levels of both interventions into the future
Scenario 2	No ART, no VMMC	Counterfactual scenario without ART or VMMC
Scenario 3	No ART (VMMC only)	Counterfactual scenario without ART (keeping historical VMMC scale-up and holding 2016 VMMC coverage levels); this scenario is compared with scenario 2 (no ART no VMMC) to quantify the effects of VMMC on incidence and mortality
Scenario 4	Age-targeted 90-90-90	Future scenario in which the 90-90-90 goals (81% ART coverage) are reached by broad age and sex groups (male and female; 15–24 years, 25–34 years, 35–44 years, and ≥45 years) by 2020 and held thereafter. Groups with greater than 81% ART coverage in the status-quo scenario were held at that coverage level
Scenario 5	100% ART initiation	Future scenario in which 100% of people living with HIV/AIDS initiate ART, on average, 6 months after seroconversion and achieve the full transmission benefit of ART 1 year after infection; cross-sectional coverage at any timepoint will be less than 100% because of the lag in ART uptake

ART=antiretroviral therapy. VMMC=voluntary medical male circumcision.