Figure 18.

Estimated posterior distribution for the causal effect of birth weight on adult fasting glucose after adapting the prior knowledge to fit the classic instrumental variable setting. The light shaded area in the posterior represents the interquartile range, while the dark shaded line indicates the median. For the Gaussian mixture prior in equation (7), we have taken ${\tau }^2=1$ and $\lambda ={10}^{-4}$, respectively. The IVW estimate reported in Del Greco et al.⁷⁰ and its confidence bounds are shown for comparison.